ECB Research: How Banks Are Re-Evaluating Corporate Credit Risk Amid the AI Boom

A new working paper published by the European Central Bank (ECB) reveals that lenders are fundamentally reordering how they evaluate corporate default risks following the generative AI boom. Analyzing lender-specific data, the study shows that banks have lowered assessed default risk by roughly 5% for private firms in highly AI-exposed industries.

However, this favorable view comes with a significant shift in corporate finance dynamics: banks are increasingly shifting credit allocation away from traditional, pre-existing market leaders in favor of more agile competitors. This reordering of credit availability points to a forward-looking measure of how generative AI is reshaping competitive risk, directly impacting transatlantic corporate banking and enterprise market strategies.