European Commission | Speech by Commissioner Kubilius at “EU Defense Night”

Good evening,

It’s always great to be back in America and to be here among friends: friends of Europe, friends of defence. Friends of football.

The World Cup is over. And tonight we have the next big event in America: EU Defence Night!

It’s humbling to speak to you from the same stage as many world leaders: Konrad Adenauer, Henry Kissinger and George H. W. Bush. And Margaret Thatcher, Vaclav Havel.

When Bill Clinton spoke here, he spoke here for more than an hour. I will try my best to be a little bit shorter.

It’s great to be here at Georgetown University, one of the most famous and oldest universities in America.

Founded around the time America was born as a country. In 1789, the year George Washington was elected President.

Vilnius university, in my hometown, where I studied and did research in physics – was founded a little bit earlier. Around the time the first European settlers arrived in America, in 1579. Georgetown University started as a Jesuit university. Vilnius University also started out as a Jesuit academy. Maybe this is why I feel immediately at home, here at Georgetown University.

These historical surroundings inspire me to speak about the big historical changes we are living through, which will impact the Future of American Strategy, as it was discussed recently in a very interesting collection of essays by the Council of Foreign Relations. And which will impact the Future of European Strategy, which I want to discuss this evening.

It’s worth to remember, that at the beginning of this century the five biggest economies in the world were the United States, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, and France. The United States number one. Today there is only one European country in that list: Germany.

In 50 years from now, by 2075, as a forecast by Goldman Sachs shows, the five biggest national economies will be China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Nigeria. No individual European countries at all. United States on number three.

The global balance of power is shifting. China and India are returning to global economic leadership, as they were before Columbus sailed to the “New World”.

For the USA it can be sensitive to go in the next 50 years from global economic leadership down to third place.

Of course, for us in Europe this is not a new experience. Two world wars, Soviet occupation and the Cold War changed our place in the world. We lost our global economic leadership at that time.

Our answer then was: to join forces. To join forces in the European Union. To put the destructive wars of the past behind us. Based on shared values, to work for freedom and prosperity.

And now after 70 years of European Unity, together, in the European Union, we have a GDP of around 23 trillion dollars.

And together, we are still in the top five. Together we are the second economy in the world. Second only after the United States.

Unity has made us much stronger.

Of course, at the end of the century collectively we shall be only Nr.4. But for us to drop down from Nr.2 to Nr.4 can be less painful. Since our history and your history gives us a lot of evidence, that unity makes us stronger, our answer today, in this changing world, must also be – to join forces across the Atlantic, with our historical partner – the United States. Our most natural ally.

One year after concluding our agreement on tariffs and trade it is worth repeating: the USA is the first economy in the world. The European Union is second economy in the world. As combined economies, even at the end of the century, we shall be able to keep global economic leadership. Perhaps.

Together we need to fear no adversary. But alone and divided, we are in danger.

The biggest adversary, the biggest threat on the continent of Europe is now Russia. We can only deter Russian aggression, together. Russia is spending 50% of its national budget on its war machine. Russia is outproducing Europe in many areas and even the United States and NATO. And will be capable of launching 10 millions drones next year.

The NATO Summit in Ankara made clear: Russia is the biggest long term threat for Europe and for NATO. To deter Russia we need a stronger Europe, for a stronger NATO. We need NATO 3.0.

Americans are asking Europe to take primary responsibility for its own conventional defence. Because the USA needs to shift to the Indo-Pacific. And this is what we are doing – we are taking responsibility. Eight European countries are already spending more than the United States on defence, in percentage of GDP. The Baltics and Poland now are spending more than 5% of their GDP on core defence. The United States with 3.2% is in the 9th place.

And if trends continue, by 2030 European countries in nominal terms, dollar by dollar, euro by euro will be spending more than the United States on defence: one trillion dollars. Europe is catching up.

A true defence big bang, making both Europe and NATO stronger.

We are now concretely discussing with our American partners the way forward. An orderly discussion on changing responsibilities.

What capabilities does America need to shift from Europe to other parts of the world? From where, and when?

Together we are identifying gaps. And the European Union can then support Member States to fill those gaps.

We need to remember that we are living through a century of major tectonic geopolitical shifts in the world.

Some of these are shifts in history that happen only once in 500 hundred years – like China and India returning to global economic leadership.

Other shifts – once in hundred years: like the dual transformation from transatlantic collective defence of Europe to much more European collective defence of Europe.

And at the same time – from the expeditionary doctrine, approved by NATO in 2012, back to the doctrine of territorial defence of Europe.

These tectonic geopolitical shifts demand from us a holistic approach to our defence readiness, which has three equally important pillars:

a)material defence readiness – weapons, finances, industry, production and procurement;

b)Institutional defence readiness – how we are organizing ourselves in Europe; how we are creating a European pillar of NATO;

c)and political defence readiness – how we are upholding our political unity, despite all the hybrid attempts to destroy it.

Today I will concentrate mainly on material defence readiness, but we shall not achieve full defence readiness  without all other pillars.

Our European material defence ramp up depends on three things.

First, on the European Union. Defence in Europe is the primary responsibility of Member States and NATO, but our European defence big bang is impossible without the European Union. The European Union offers EU added value, allowing Member States to operate on a European scale.

So even the smallest Member States can leverage the power of an entire continent of 450 million people. For example: our EU Space for Defence programme. Which no Member State can build alone. But gives all Member States world class satellite navigation, observation with intelligence data, and soon secure connectivity.

We are now mobilising this EU added value in different areas of our defence. For example, since 2023 we ramped up ammunition production in Europe to two million rounds a year – only possible thanks to an EU policy instrument – called ASAP. Without that we would still be producing only 200,000 rounds a year.

Also, we relaxed EU budgetary rules so Member States can spend more on defence. It would otherwise not be possible for many Member States to reach agreed NATO 3.5 % defence spending targets.

We are encouraging cooperation, joint production and joint procurement. With new EU instruments and money.

We are pushing for the creation of one integrated European defence market, because now we have 27 markets. And this is a big obstacle to ramp up production.

At the same time we have dramatically cut “red tape” for defence industry across the entire European Union. From four years waiting times in some cases for permits to build defence production facilities – down to 60 days. In other words: from 1460 days to 60 days. 25 times faster.

Now, we are also radically destroying obstacles to military mobility across the continent. So troops and equipment – also American ones – can quickly go where they are needed.

In short, we are mobilising our EU added value to create a strong European Pillar of a NATO 3.0. To make NATO and the Transatlantic alliance stronger.

Second, our defence ramp up depends on partnership between European defence industry and American industry.

Until  2035, during the next 10 years, Member States will spend 7 trillion euro on defence. And they can spend their national money when they like and where they like.

This creates for US defence companies a rapidly growing European defence market.

On top of that are EU defence investment programmes, which also offer opportunities for American industry.150 billion in SAFE loans, the 60 billion Ukraine defence loan.

Also the next EU multi-annual budget, from 2028 till 2035 – around 130 billion euro for defence and space.

EU defence funds, compared to Member States money for defence, are around 100 times smaller, and are as you say in America: “small potatoes”. Not trillions but only billions. Nevertheless good opportunities.

Now almost 90 US companies are taking part in our European defence programmes. There is still a lot of space, for America to invest in European defence industry.

But while Europeans buy 40% of their defence equipment in the United States, the US buys only 1 % in Europe.

For a true transatlantic defence industrial partnership we need also American industry and militaries to procure and to invest in Europe. True partnership in defence is much more than just licensing or co-production: it’s also sharing IP rights, joint research and joint development of new products, joint innovations and joint learning from Ukrainian defence industrial experience.

What is damaging possibilities of American defence industry on the European continent?

It is still ITAR.

European Member States are very cautious to buy defence products without guarantees they will be free to use them as they need. And some clever companies are already advertising: our products are ITAR free.

That is a key selling point for your competitors.

Finally, for our defence ramp-up we need to learn from Ukraine. Russia is continuing its war of aggression. But at growing cost. Ukrainian drones are stopping the Russian advance. Disrupting logistics behind the front line. And deep inland they are striking the oil supply that fuels Russia’s war machine.

For the first time since the fall of communism: long queues in Moscow, queues before petrol stations. Occupied Crimea is collapsing.

But the more Ukraine is prevailing, the more desperate Putin gets. And deadly. Every day there are drone attacks and ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv.

We now need to double down on our support for brave Ukraine.

It’s good that President Trump discussed the possibility of licensed production of anti-ballistic Pac3 missiles in Ukraine.

It was good also that at the NATO Summit in Ankara allies once again promised: 140 billion euro in support for defence of Ukraine for this year and next year.

The European Union and Member States will continue our support. As we have done till now, being the biggest supporter worldwide of Ukraine, with more than 180 billion euro since the Russian invasion.

Member States can now use 150 billion euro in SAFE loans to procure with Ukraine and for Ukraine. And now money from our 60 billion Ukraine Support loan, devoted for defence of Ukraine, is starting to reach Ukraine.

But now Ukraine not only receives support, but also gives support. Including for us, in Europe.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: Ukraine has the best army in Europe.

Ukraine has the best army not only because it has the best generals and bravest soldiers. But also because Ukraine has the best and most innovative industry and engineers.

And why is the Ukrainian defence industry the most innovative?

At the very beginning of the war, there was no military demand from traditional generals of Ukraine for drones and for innovative defence.

Only after some time, in Ukraine, innovative defence supply from a dynamic industry managed to transform military demand.

Thanks to innovative supply – Ukraine changed its war doctrine. Thanks to transformation of its war doctrine, Ukraine now is prevailing.

In Europe we need to repeat the same road of transformation: on supply side and on demand side. And finally to transform our defence doctrines.

It would be difficult to understand if we in Europe would not take it as our vital interest to integrate the best European military force and most innovative defence industry  of Ukraine into our European defence architecture.

Ukrainian industry produces “good enough” weapons for wartime conditions, to perform on the battlefield. European defence industry produces “haute couture” defence products. Products made for peacetime conditions. Products that are technologically advanced, but difficult to make, expensive and hard to scale up.

We must learn from Ukraine how to make “good enough” defence products. “Good enough” weapons that get the job done. And are cheaper. Weapons that can have rapid scale-up of production, rapid innovation, rapid repairs.

We are learning how to transform our industry and war doctrine from Ukraine. By putting Ukraine at the centre of our defence initiatives. Our initiatives on defence innovation, joint procurement and production.

And Ukraine is part of pan-European Defence projects like the Eastern Flank Watch, Air Defence Shield and the European Sky Shield against ballistic missiles.

Last week we signed the EU – Ukraine defence industrial pact. And the drone alliance between EU and Ukrainian industry was established to jointly produce drones and counter drones systems. And plans to build joint anti-ballistic system, based on Ukraine produced missiles and European seekers and radars were announced.

We are bringing together Europe’s industrial power and Ukraine’s innovation power.

In a changing world, Europe and America need each other. In the short run – to face the Russian threat. In the longer run – to face the shifting balance of power on a global scene.

We are natural allies.

When we Europeans look at America, we see ourselves, descendents of Europeans who built America, including many Lithuanians. Men like Charles Dennis Buchinsk, who came to this country very young, spoke at first only Lithuanian and Russian and served in World War Two in the US Air Force. We know him better as Charles Bronson. I saw him on the screen when I was very young in movies like the Magnificent Seven and other Western movies. And he showed us the freedom and opportunities of America.

And in Europe and America we look at the world in very similar ways. We are rooted in the same historical and cultural, and religious and philosophical traditions.

We have the same motto: You “from many one” – “E pluribus unum”. And we have: “Unity in diversity”.

This summer, an American Hollywood blockbuster is breaking all records by telling one of Europe’s oldest stories: the Odyssey.

We share the same values of freedom and democracy. We share the historical experience of resisting and defeating totalitarianism of Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union.

Now it falls on our generation to be put to the test. Now it is our responsibility, to meet the great challenge of our age.

To deter Russian aggression and prevent war. And to bring our transatlantic alliance through this turbulent century into the next century.

 

 

Compliments of the European Commission