Below includes an overview of MJV Technology & Innovation’s “New Normal Under Construction” research. For more information, be sure to check out the following article published in Thrive Global that mentions more on the New Normal – it includes an interview with Mauricio Vianna, CEO of MJV Technology & Innovation: How Do I Grow My Business In The New Normal?
MJV research brings four scenarios for the future of the pandemic
These are times of uncertainty. So far, society has not found an answer to the pandemic’s future, and many doubts are still hanging in the air. After all, what trends and technologies have been accelerated? Is home office here to stay? How will the market recover?
Intending to lighten up this cloudy future a little bit, MJV Innovation launched their “New Normal Under Construction” research. The study was conducted by a team of 8 researchers, led by Bibiana Bosak, MJV futures strategist certified by Copenhagen Institute of Futures Studies, Ysmar Vianna, company chairman and pioneer of the Design Thinking methodology in Brazil, and Maurício Vianna, CEO and Ph.D. in Computer Science from the Illinois Institute of Technology.
The team brings four future scenarios inspired by studies developed by Sohail Inayatullah, Chair of Futures Studies at UNESCO.
“The central purpose of the research is to bring possible paths, perspectives, and choices for the construction of desirable futures through a holistic view at current events,” says Bibiana Bosak.
The four alternative post-pandemic futures
The scenarios created by MJV in the last part of the study were developed using the Futures Studies methodology. Researchers were challenged to think about the future considering four types of scenarios:
- Continuity: a scenario in which the status quo is maintained, and society’s progress occurs predictably;
- Discipline and Limit: society’s behavior adapts due to the increasing internal or environmental limits;
- Decline and collapse: the entire system regresses or plunges to a dysfunctional level;
- Transformation: new technologies, businesses, and game-changing social factors are emerging.
“The compilation in 4 narratives, or archetypes of futures, was created by Jim Dator, from the University of Hawaii, one of the systematizers of the methodology of Futures Studies”, explains Ysmar Vianna.
1. Continuity Scenario: the necessary pause
In the first scenario, the pandemic would be resolved in 2020. By the beginning of 2021, we would have a vaccine on the market. At the same time, society’s frenetic pace slows down, and we are aware of several impacts, such as lull in touristic cities and even slight climatic changes in the globe.
Experts say that some social changes would be noticed. “People would start to focus more on their personal lives. Meditation would be an increasingly common practice,” says Bosak.
Besides, home office would be practiced only for a short period. “The public service and some organizations, due to a factor of trust, would abandon the model,” explains Bibiana Bosak.
2. Discipline and Limit Scenario: a walled yard
In this scenario, COVID-19 would not be an apocalypse or a depression, but it would represent a sharp drop in wealth and public health in many countries. WHO and nations would fail to contain the virus.
“It is a scenario in which airports would be constantly closed, and the isolation measures would last longer than expected. This would make the continuation of accelerated globalization almost impossible,” concludes Bibiana.
As a result, there would be a significant impact on production chains. “Many countries would bring production centers inside. This would have an impact mainly on the economy of developing nations,” she concludes.
3. Collapse scenario: the social apocalypse
The company’s worst scenario foresees unexpected mutations of the virus, xenophobia, and generalized panic. Uncertainty would break markets, and the whole world would enter a recession.
Most companies would not survive, there would be a fiscal crisis in governments, and many countries would migrate to a totalitarian regime focused on state surveillance. “It would be a future in which feelings of panic and fear overcome people,” concludes Bibiana.
4. Transformation Scenario: the awakening of humanity
In the fourth and final scenario developed by MJV researchers, the pandemic would help us jump straight into the digital age’s fourth wave. Big companies, startups, science, and government expertise in public health would get us out of this crisis better than we entered.
The new norm would be the five p’s – prevention, precision, participation, partnership, and personalization in public health. Open Innovation and new technologies would open several doors for humanity.
Another impact would be a revolution in the relationship between the employee and the company, giving rise to new work forms, such as the home office. “In addition, universal basic income has become a reality in many places. We would understand that a society’s success is not based on how we glorify the strongest, but on how we support the most vulnerable,” concludes Bibiana.
Methodology: what is Futures Studies?
Volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. This is how futurologists see contemporaneity. This is what they call the VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) world, marked by the high volatility of political, social, economic, and business relationships.
Common in the era of disruption, these uncertainties have led large companies to seek MJV for a real “immersion” in the future. They turn to Futures Studies, a science that explores possible futures, forecasting, and even creating vivid experiences (simulations, for example), to develop new insights and position themselves assertively in the market.
“It is not a forecast of the future, nor a crystal ball. The idea is to explore scenarios, whether desirable or undesirable so that organizations are more accurate when taking their next steps. The future is created now”, says Maurício Vianna, CEO of MJV.
Building the scenarios
To create these scenarios, the team went through an extensive process that begins in the so-called horizon scan, where weak signals are identified. After scanning, these signals are systematized into macro-territories, which allows us to understand which fields or themes are most relevant for the current moment.
We find uncertainties, still cloudy areas within the macro-territories, and their polarities and possible future derivations called forecasts. The final step is to use the strategic foresight methodology to find the latent narratives, the forces common to all macro-territories, which have greater power to influence future decisions; these forces are called Drivers of Change.
Compliments of MJV Technology & Innovation – a member of the EACCNY.