OECD | Headline Inflation Eased to 4.2% in June 2026, Reflecting a Temporary Decline in Energy Inflation

Year-on-year inflation in the OECD as measured by the Consumer Price Index declined to 4.2% in June 2026, down from 4.6% in May.

Year-on-year inflation in the OECD as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 4.2% in June 2026, down from 4.6% in May (Table 1, Figures 1 and 2), following three consecutive monthly increases. Headline inflation declined in 20 OECD countries, rose in 6, and was stable or broadly stable in 12. In June, headline inflation was below or at 2.0% in nine OECD countries, and below 1.0% in three of them (Table 1).

Compared with May, energy inflation in the OECD fell by 4.0 percentage points (p.p.) in June, to 11.7% year-on-year, with declines in 24 of the 37 OECD countries with available data. Despite these declines, 10 countries recorded rising energy inflation, and 6 countries had energy inflation above 15%. Both food and core inflation (inflation excluding food and energy) declined by 0.2 p.p. in June to 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively.

In the G7, year-on-year headline inflation also decreased to 3.0% in June, down from 3.5% in May. The decline primarily reflected a 5.2 p.p. fall in energy inflation. Notably, headline inflation declined in every G7 country except Japan, where it edged up by 0.2 p.p. to 1.7%, mirroring a rise in energy inflation from below to close to zero. By contrast, a marked decrease in energy inflation in the United States drove headline inflation to 3.5% in June, down from 4.2% in May. Similar developments were also observed in France, where the greater number of days of seasonal sales in June 2026 than in June 2025 accentuated the decline (Figures 2 and 4). In Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, core inflation was the main driver of headline inflation. In contrast, in Canada, France, and Italy, the combined effect of food and energy prices was primarily responsible for headline inflation. In Japan, the contribution of core inflation was roughly equal to those of food and energy combined (Figure 3).

In the euro area, year-on-year headline inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell to 2.8% in June, down from 3.2% in May, as energy inflation fell and food inflation reached its lowest level in five years. Eurostat’s flash estimate indicates that euro area year-on-year headline inflation remained broadly stable at 2.9% in July 2026. Energy inflation is estimated to have increased to 10.0% and core inflation to have remained broadly stable at 2.5%.

In the G20, year-on-year headline inflation fell to 4.1% in June, down from 4.3% in May. Headline inflation in China declined to 1.0%, from 1.2% in May, while it rose in Argentina, Indonesia and South Africa. It was stable or broadly stable in Brazil, India and Saudi Arabia (Table 2).

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