Jaguar Freight | Breaking up is Harder than you think

Production returning to China, an all time high for US diesel, a strong peak shipping season, strained US inland networks, and improving safety on inbound cargo shipments.

The impacts of the trade war continue to evolve. Some companies who moved their production out of China to avoid US tariffs are returning because they’ve been struggling to replicate China’s manufacturing strengths elsewhere. Several are citing China’s skilled labor, broad supplier networks, reliable power, and cost advantages as their reason for switching back. Rival nations like Vietnam and India face challenges with logistics, equipment, and energy stability. And all of that limits their appeal for large scale relocation.

Oil price volatility continues to hang over supply chains. US diesel prices are at an all-time high, with DOE/EIA’s average retail price hitting $6.285 per gallon, up $1.70 since July, while futures prices are also setting records. The recent spike is being driven by Middle East pipeline attacks, ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions, refinery outages, and an overall tightening of global inventories. Analysts are warning that both diesel and crude prices are unlikely to fall anytime soon.

Even with considerable doom and gloom about the global economy and geopolitics, there are signs things are not so bad. This year’s ocean shipping peak season is lasting longer than expected, with September forecast to be the busiest month at all major US ports. According to the NRF and Hackett Associates, the numbers are up 9.6% year-over-year. And although there’s also a forecast for an early finish, strong imports are continuing to drive high container volumes.

Are inland networks keeping up with solid import demand? Rail dwell time at the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex climbed to 6.75 days in August 2026 (up from 6.34 in July), even as truck dwell held steady. Union Pacific and BNSF are struggling to keep pace with cargo flows, a strain that has been building since late spring. There’s a growing gap between stable truck performance and worsening rail dwell points to an intermodal bottleneck risk for inland-bound freight just as peak fall shipping season ramps up.

A new World Shipping Council report, based on over 93,000 cargo inspections from seven countries, found safety deficiencies in 10.36% of shipments. The rate has been climbing steadily over the past three years, and common issues include improperly declared and/or poorly secured cargo, which heightens the risks of fires and container losses. The council is urging stricter enforcement and better reporting to improve maritime safety.

Compliments of Jaguar Freight – A Member of the EACCNY