By Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets The global economy has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty, and at the center of this instability stands the United States. In a reversal of its traditional role as a pillar of predictability and leadership, the U.S. has adopted an erratic posture—rife with sudden feints, policy reversals, and institutional strain. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Trump administration’s economic and foreign policy strategy, which increasingly appears less a coherent vision...

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A sharp drop in U.S.-China trade, driven by escalating tariffs, has led to a surge in blank sailings, exceeding levels seen during the pandemic. Over 80 sailings were canceled in April 2025, surpassing the 51 reported in May 2020. Sea-Intelligence data forecasts a 28% drop in container demand on the Asia–U.S. West Coast route and 42% on the East Coast. Smaller carriers that rely on Chinese exports are facing severe strain, with some at the point of collapse. Empty container stockpiles...

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By Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets The global economy has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty—and at the center of this turbulence stands the United States. In a striking reversal of its traditional role as a pillar of predictability and leadership, the U.S. has adopted an increasingly erratic posture, marked by sudden policy feints, reversals, and mounting institutional strain. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Trump administration’s economic and foreign policy approach, which resembles less a...

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There is now data to support what has been feared. The impact of tariffs includes a dramatic drop of 64% in US ocean container bookings from March to April 2025. This is after a temporary spike, as importers rushed to ship goods ahead of the tariffs. But as soon as the tariffs went into effect, bookings collapsed as businesses faced higher costs and uncertainty. And while some tariffs were suspended, havoc had already descended on supply chains. Companies are taking a...

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"May you live in interesting times” – this backhanded well-wish may never have been as applicable as it is today. Since January, the news cycle has been a steady stream of market-disrupting announcements, false starts, military escalations and political and economic gamesmanship that has humbled economists and wonks who normally have strong insight on things to come. Interesting (unstable) times can be challenging for any business, and regardless of political leaning, no one can deny that since Trump’s return...

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Key insights Higher tariffs mean companies must adapt their transfer pricing policies and supply chain management strategies to account for increased costs associated with importing goods. If a company's actual results from transactions during the tax year are not arm's length, they are required to make retroactive adjustments to the transfer prices paid during the year. Strategic declaration of transaction prices and participation in initiatives like Customs and Border Protection’s reconciliation program can help reduce duty liability. By accurately...

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By: Ryan Last, Daniel N. Anziska, Lindsay Austin, Sean P. McNally, Tom Tilton, and Charlene C. Goldfield, Troutman Pepper Locke On April 11, the White House released a Presidential Memorandum, “Clarification of Exceptions Under Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, as Amended,” which exempts a list of semiconductors and electronics from reciprocal tariffs issued under Executive Order 14257, “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits,” as...

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By Catherine Alvino, Marketing Manager, Tradewind Finance International trade has a way of keeping you on your toes – and trade involving auto parts is no exception. With recent tariff announcements from the U.S., automakers and auto parts suppliers are facing a new set of questions on how to best go about business. 40-80% of auto parts used in U.S.-made cars are imported, according to auto analyst Mel Yu. These parts come largely from Canada and Mexico in what is an intertwined supply...

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The US-China trade war continues to escalate, with the latest salvo from China coming Friday. In a statement, China retaliated against the reciprocal tariffs from the US by raising its levies on US goods to 125% from 84%, according to the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council. This follows a busy week of tariff news published by the Trump administration who confirmed on Thursday that the US tariff rate on Chinese imports now effectively totals 145%. The news of the...

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