UNCTAD | Global Trade Continues to Expand Amid Rising Price Pressures

This edition of the Global Trade Update examines the strong but increasingly uneven expansion of international trade in the first half of 2026.

Global goods trade is estimated to have reached approximately US$13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 12.5 % from the same period in 2025. Services trade grew by 10.5 %. Together, goods and services added around US$2 trillion to global trade, putting it on course for a record annual value.

Higher prices inflate trade growth

A significant share of the increase reflects higher prices rather than stronger trade volumes. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, together with concerns over energy supplies, raised energy, transport, logistics and production costs.

Prices of traded goods increased by about 3.6 % in the first quarter and is estimated to have risen by about 5 % in the second, largely reflecting higher energy and selected commodity prices.

East Asia leads an uneven expansion

East Asia was the main engine of global trade growth in the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong import and export performance in China and the Republic of Korea. Trade in other Asian subregions contracted , while Africa and the Americas experienced stronger import than export growth.

East Asia’s role was also central to South-South trade: excluding the region, trade among developing economies contracted during the first quarter. Trade balances continued to shift, with China’s surplus widening and the United States’ deficit narrowing.

AI and electric mobility support sectoral growth

During the first quarter of 2026, demand for AI infrastructure, digital technologies and electric mobility drove strong growth in technology-intensive goods. Trade increased by 38 % for critical minerals, 25 % for semiconductors, 15 % for batteries, 14 % for ICT products, and 11 % for electric vehicles.

By contrast, trade contracted in chemicals, iron and steel, and some renewable-energy products. Fossil-fuel trade increased largely because of higher prices.

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Compliments of UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)