Jaguar Freight | Capacity Crunch

The latest Logistics Manager’s Index (a measure of supply chain activity) rose to 69.9% in April, the fastest expansion in over four years. Shaping that result is warehousing capacity contracting in April, hitting its tightest point since early 2024 as demand for space increased along with rising inventories. At a time when both warehousing and transportation capacity are shrinking, firms need to deal with escalating storage costs, especially smaller operations that are struggling to compete for limited space. The outlook indicates continued tight capacity, with costs likely to rise rapidly in the near term.

According to a new report, China’s e-commerce air export volumes declined 6% year-on-year in March, which marks the first drop since June 2023. The drop is attributed to the U.S. ending the de minimis exemption for Chinese packages and ongoing disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East, with North American and Middle Eastern volumes hit the hardest.

U.S. Customs is reporting that it expects electronic refunds for IEEPA tariffs will begin as early as May 12. Importers are expecting up to $166 billion in duties to be returned. But remember, this Phase 1 is the cleanest “batch” of potential refunds. The refund categories explicitly outside Phase 1 are not part of the initial window. Questions remain as to whether (and how) consumers could be reimbursed for tariffs passed through to them.

Gartner warns that companies that replace entry-level hires with AI rather than developing talent will pay a price. The premise is that by 2030, 75% of supply chain firms that decided to overlook hiring early-career positions in 2026 will end up paying premiums of over 15% to recruit skilled workers, because by then they will be scarce. This shows a key potential limitation of AI as a substitute for people.

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