Jaguar Freight | When You Cherry-Pick the Data

In this week’s Roar: Are tariffs helping the U.S. trade deficit as intended? Ocean carriers rake in the profits, oil continues to be volatile, a mixed outlook for air cargo, and a likely extension of the Jones Act waiver.

Can we say at this point if tariffs are helping the U.S. trade deficit? Not definitively. The June data shows the deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion, down from $77.6 billion in May, and down 33.8% year-to-date versus 2025. That’s the direction tariff proponents would want to see. But the improvement is coming almost entirely from weaker imports (up just 0.4% YTD) rather than stronger exports (up 11.7%). Softer domestic demand, currency moves, and 2025 import front-running ahead of tariff deadlines could all be contributing. The data is consistent with the tariff narrative, but it doesn’t prove it.

Higher fuel costs from the Iran conflict are not hurting ocean carriers’ profits. ONE’s bunker prices jumped to $666/ton from $535 a year ago while lifting its full-year profit outlook to $900 million from $300 million. What’s happening is the industry is passing those costs through to shippers via higher rates, with Asia-US ocean rates up 234% since February. Rivals CMA CGM (22.7% EBITDA margin) and Maersk (16.8%) are outpacing ONE’s 15.6% margin, showing the profit boost from war-driven pricing power is being felt broadly across carriers.

The wild ride in oil prices continues with benchmark Brent crude dropping 5.4% to $79.25 per barrel recently. This is after swinging between $72 and $102 per barrel throughout July as a result of the instability in the Gulf. This situation isn’t going to change anytime soon, so importers who haven’t taken steps to adapt to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty need to do so soon, as sharp price moves should be treated as the new normal.

There’s a mixed outlook for the air cargo market for the rest of 2026. Global demand was up 4% year-on-year at the end of June, but growth is expected to slow as capacity increases start to lag. Rates climbed as much as 38% from last year, and are forecasted for a 5 to 15% full-year increase. Hardware shipments are offsetting weaker e-commerce flows, but the current market volatility and spot market reliance mean that shippers shouldn’t expect rates to ease soon.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Trump administration will likely extend the Jones Act waiver, making it possible for foreign-flag ships to move petroleum between U.S. ports. He said the waiver, which was put in place after the Middle East disruptions began, has aided about 200 voyages and helped to keep coastal fuel prices lower, even in the face of resistance from maritime labor and industry groups.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, click here.

Compliments of Jaguar Freight – a member of the EACCNY