October FX outlook – the run up to the US election

The Fed decision was largely as expected, leaving rates unchanged but hinting at a strong possibility of tightening in December. The US election campaign will come more into focus in October, with USD/MXN the main FX barometer of sentiment. The US Q3 GDP data on October 28th looks like being the key data release. Current concerns about Deutsche Bank are creating a risk negative tone to the markets and favoring the USD and JPY.

1) US monetary policy. Key event: US GDP October 28th.

•    Expectations for Fed policy remain crucial. At this stage the market sees around a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. If this becomes more likely over the month, the USD should advance in general, especially against the higher yielding currencies, as rising expectations of tightening may damage risk appetite unless supported by evidence of strengthening growth.
•    The Q3 GDP data on October 28th is likely to prove important in this regard. Something stronger than 3% is likely to secure expectations of Fed tightening. Recent comments from the Fed suggest they are inclined to hike rates in December unless they have a good reason not to, with some concerned about bubble conditions in asset markets.

2)    The run up to the US election. Key events: Presidential debates October 9th and 19th.

•    It is not entirely clear how US election expectations will affect the USD in general, but it seems a Clinton victory is being viewed as slightly more positive for risky assets, notably the MXN, but also other risk assets, judging by the reaction to the first presidential debate. Concerns about trade policy under Trump may be the reason for this.
•    However, some also see a Trump victory as more growth positive, as he is perceived as more likely to encourage increased fiscal spending. This is not entirely clear, as both candidates appear to support some fiscal expansion, and the president is in any case not in real control of spending. Nevertheless, a slightly more expansionary fiscal policy under Trump might favor the USD in general, though less so against the JPY and other safe havens.

3) Still waiting for Brexit news

•    Sentiment towards GBP is likely to be primarily determined by perceptions of whether we are likely to see a “hard” or a “soft” Brexit. A “hard” Brexit essentially means the UK losing access to the European single market and having to either negotiate a new trade deal or fall back on WTO rules.
•    The biggest concern is around UK banking business losing “passporting” rights to operate in the EU. Currently, a “hard” Brexit seems the most likely outcome, as the UK government appears unwilling to accept the free movement of labor that would be required to get access to the single EU market.
•    These issues are likely to remain unclear, though statements from the UK and EU officials can be expected to affect sentiment. In the meantime UK data indicating how the economy is holding up in the face of the initial Brexit referendum shock will remain a focus.

4) The OPEC deal and the oil price.

•    The commitment from OPEC to reduce output by 740,000 bpd from the end of the year is a much stronger outcome than anyone expected from the meeting just concluded in Algiers. However, the devil is in the detail, since at this stage there has been no allocation of the production cuts.
•    It is most likely that the vast majority of the cut will have to come from Saudi Arabia, but their incentive to cut production depends on how much the oil price rises in response.
•    The difficulty for them is that even if the initial impact of their cuts was sufficient to boost the price to acceptable levels, a rise in the price could easily trigger increased production from non-OPEC producers
•    However, the price rise seen on the announcement should hold at least until the formal November OPEC meeting, limiting the downside for oil related currencies.