Well, that was unexpected. With some 3 million 20-foot-equivalent units (TEU) in new capacity poised to come online in 2024, after 3 years of controlled capital spending, carriers went into the year anticipating a reversion to the chronic overcapacity that has long weighed on the industry’s profitability. But market fundamentals changed drastically in November 2023, when Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a campaign of attacks on Red Sea shipping. Virtually overnight, 7-8% of global capacity was diverted as Red Sea...

US importers are getting a reprieve from tariffs with major trade partners, but the looming threat of more tariffs has shippers biding time by continuing to frontload. A surge in imports is keeping trans-Pacific container rates high despite the usual seasonal slowdown. The increased demand for shipping capacity is impacting market rates and logistics planning. Carriers are benefiting from stronger than expected volumes, while shippers try to deal with cost fluctuations and disruptions. The general uncertainty around future tariffs has...

By Erik Smithweiss and Sarah Raymond On February 14, 2025, the Trump administration released the list of “derivative” products that will be subject to the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 232. The notices are scheduled to be published in the Federal Register notice on Tuesday, February 18, 2025. The specific HTS subheadings are available here (steel) and here (aluminum). The steel and aluminum derivative tariffs will impact a broad range of downstream products, including the following: – Nearly all of...

In this week’s Roar: Expediting imports, declining freight rates, the off-again on-again de minimis exemption, Mexico’s tariffs plans, and the costs of changing trade policies. Heightened concerns over increased US-China trade tensions (even compared to just a few weeks ago) are prompting shippers to further frontload their imports. They’re hoping to mitigate some of the impact of anticipated tariffs. This could mean that the usual seasonal lull in container volumes after the Lunar New Year are diminished and that Trans-Pacific...

On February 1, President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, which sparked intense negotiations with the affected countries. On February 10, President Trump reportedly announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports — and there is the possibility of further tariff announcements on the horizon. As we continue to monitor the situation, this comprehensive analysis delves into the potential far-reaching consequences of the first round of proposed tariffs and what they could mean...

Authors: Erik Smithweiss and Sarah Raymond The Trump Administration issued Presidential Proclamations on February 10, 2025, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, making major changes to U.S. tariff policy on steel and aluminum imports. Effective March 12, 2025, all steel and aluminum imports covered by the prior Section 232 actions — regardless of origin — will be subject to an additional 25% tariff. Countries that once benefitted from alternative tariff agreements — Australia, Canada, Mexico, South Korea,...

By Ian Hunter “Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game.” - Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal President Trump has never seen trade policy as just economics – it’s a high-stakes game, and winning is everything. Throughout his career, he has framed trade deficits as evidence of American weakness, blaming past administrations for allowing U.S. manufacturing to decline while foreign goods flood the market.  With Washington...