Prepared by Lukas Boeckelmann, Lorenz Emter, Isabella Moder, Giacomo Pongetti and Tajda Spital This box reviews recent developments in global and euro area greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) and analyses the role of geopolitics in shaping these. As firms and policymakers increasingly look at ways to reduce the vulnerability of their supply chains, understanding recent dynamics in greenfield investment is important as these may foreshadow a reconfiguration of global trade networks, the fragmentation of which could be particularly detrimental for the...

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Leading up to the inaugural convening of the International Network of AI Safety Institutes, Commerce Department highlights implementation of President Biden’s historic AI Executive Order, which tasked the Department with numerous responsibilities to spur the safe development, deployment and adoption of responsible AI.  Today, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo marked the one-year anniversary of President Biden and Vice President Harris’ historic Executive Order (EO) on the Safe, Secure and Trustworthy Development of AI by reflecting on the progress made by the Commerce...

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Abstract: This paper examines the asymmetry in global spillovers from Fed policy across tightening versus easing episodes several examples of which have been on display since the global financial crisis (GFC). We build a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring: (i) occasionally binding collateral constraints in the financial sector with significant cross-border exposure; and (ii) global supply chains, allowing us to match the asymmetry of spillovers across contractionary versus expansionary monetary policy shocks. We find clear asymmetries in the transmission...

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Prepared by Pedro Baptista, Colm Bates, Omiros Kouvavas, Pedro Neves and Katia Werkmeister Understanding how consumers perceive drivers of inflation is crucial for interpreting shifts in their inflation expectations, which can significantly influence real economic decisions. The narratives consumers construct to explain inflation play a key role in shaping their expectations, with different drivers – such as wages or profits – implying different degrees of inflation persistence. To explore this further, in June 2023 and March 2024 the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey...

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Five international organisations today released a landmark report that outlines pathways for co-ordinated approaches on climate action, carbon pricing, and the cross-border effects of climate change mitigation policies with a view to achieving global climate goals. The report was presented on 23 October by the Joint Task Force on Climate Action, Carbon Pricing, and Policy Spillovers, convened by the World Trade Organization and joined by the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations Trade and...

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Abstract: Based on granular data at the product level, this paper looks at whether and how the euro area and the United States have modified their import sourcing strategies since 2016, the role played by geopolitical tensions and the potential impact on import prices. It considers two different, but not mutually exclusive, changes to sourcing strategies for a given product: (i) increasing the number of sourcing countries and (ii) reducing the import market share of the main supplier country. Data...

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