Keynote remarks by Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, at the “One Europe, One Market Summit”, organized by the Jacques Delors Friends of Europe Foundation, Brussels The world economy—and Europe with it—is hit once more by a shock: this time, the events unfolding in the Middle East. Before Hormuz closed, Europe’s growth outlook was improving and we at the IMF were getting ready to upgrade our forecasts. Now, we see growth down and inflation up. But still, some credit where credit is due: it...

The conflict in the Middle East is expected to slow global growth to the lowest rate since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic amid higher energy prices, steeper inflation, and increased borrowing costs , according to the World Bank Group’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.  Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025. Forecasts for two-thirds of economies have been downgraded relative to January of this year.  Global growth is expected to improve to 2.8%...

Blog | The current energy shock is significant and global, but it is also hitting a euro area economy that is more balanced than when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. History and analysis show that context matters a lot for how shocks propagate to inflation. Energy prices have risen sharply since early 2026 when war broke out again in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz was closed. This big uptick in energy inflation has in turn driven...

How new economics tools explain global power dynamics Throughout history, powerful nations have used economic leverage to bend others to their will. Florence’s Medici banking dynasty shaped Renaissance politics with its financial dominance, and imperial Britain used trade dominance to bind its empire together and wield power across the globe. Today, the United States freezes access to financial markets or urges its allies to impose export controls on essential technologies, and China threatens restrictions on rare earths to expand its...

Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2026 Thank you for inviting me to speak today. Europe is facing a set of unprecedented challenges. The geopolitical environment is becoming increasingly fragmented. Europe remains overly dependent on external providers for energy, technology, security and key financial infrastructures such as payment systems and capital markets. Reducing these dependencies is no longer a...