Vulcan View: The latest EU developments 16 September – 20 September

President von der Leyen unveils her new College of Commissioners

On Tuesday (17 September), President von der Leyen announced the names and portfolios of her new College of Commissioners. The new list of Commissioners-designate and their responsibilities align with the ambitions outlined in the Political Guidelines and the European Union’s core priorities of Prosperity, Security and Democracy.

A significant highlight of this Commission is President von der Leyen’s efforts in promoting gender balance. While there is not an equal number of male and female Commissioners (11 women, including the President), von der Leyen achieved balance within the executive leadership team, composed of four women and two men as executive Vice-Presidents.

Another notable outcome is that Southern European countries secured several sought-after economic portfolios. Italy will oversee the portfolio for Cohesion and Reforms, Portugal will manage the Financial Services portfolio, and Spain will manage the Competition portfolio. Additionally, Italian nominee Raffaele Fitto has been appointed as an executive Vice-President despite concerns raised by various political groups regarding his affiliation with Brothers of Italy, a far-right party.

A crucial aspect of this new Commission is von der Leyen’s emphasis that its members are political leaders, not necessarily subject matter experts. Von der Leyen reiterated that “each Member of the College is equal”, and that every Commissioner holds equal responsibility for delivering the EU’s priorities. President von der Leyen described the new Commission structure as “leaner”, “more interactive and interlinked.” Commissioners are set to work together on tasks to achieve the EU’s goals for this mandate.

Von der Leyen’s announcement sets the stage for the European Parliament’s hearing process, which will commence once all necessary documentation is submitted. The European Parliament’s Legal Committee will review the declarations of interest of the Commissioners-designate – a prerequisite for moving forward with the confirmation hearings.

Before the hearings, each Commisioner-designate’s written response to preliminary questions will be published. They will then appear before the relevant Parliamentary Committees for a three-hour hearing. The Parliament will evaluate each candidate based on competence, commitment to European values, personal independence, subject knowledge, and communication skills. Following the hearings, the Committee coordinators will assess each Commissioner-designate and draft a letter of evaluation for each candidate.

Pressure mounts on Simon Harris to call an election in November following poll results

The latest iteration of the Red C poll has shown Fine Gael as the most popular party in the country and Sinn Féin continuing its decline. Fine Gael at 23 per cent (+2 per cent), with Fianna Fáil (-1 per cent) and Sinn Féin (-2 per cent) both on 18 per cent. The Taoiseach has adamantly maintained in public that the government intends to run its full term until February 2025. Micheál Martin has largely held the same line. However, when speaking to reporters at Fianna Fáil’s annual think-in on Tuesday, he said that “there’s not much difference between November and February”.

Ultimately, the decision on when to call an election is entirely within the discretion of the Taoiseach. It is known that most Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil backbench TDs favour a November election and certain of Harris’ advisers are also counselling him that an early election is preferable from a strategic perspective.

Furthermore, the latest Irish Times/Ipsos opinion poll highlighted how support for Sinn Féin has decreased since the last poll was conducted, with support for Mary Lou McDonald also sharply falling by 6 per cent. In this poll, support for Fine Gael stood at 27 per cent (+4 per cent), Sinn Féin at 20 per cent (-3 per cent), and Fianna Fáil at 19 per cent (-1 per cent). Additionally, government satisfaction has increased by 9 per cent to reach 40 per cent, meaning that voter’s satisfaction with the current Coalition performance is improving.

In terms of party leader, Taoiseach Simon Harris has seen the largest increase in support with his personal ratings surging by 17 points, to reach 55 per cent. Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, stands in second place at 47 per cent, while Roderic O’Gorman stands at 17 per cent. With Mary Lou McDonald’s popularity falling, this is also the lowest level of support that Sinn Féin has seen since before the last general election in 2020. mers, and the environment. Through this new legislation, the EU reaffirms its dedication to promoting a more sustainable and circular economy.

Introducing the first Defence and Space Commissioner, Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius

The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian military has become, besides a tragedy to the people, fertiliser for a growing complexity of threats facing Europe. A need for investments in a security framework with the cooperation of NATO and the Member States is prioritised for action. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced on Tuesday (17 September) that Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius will be appointed as the first European Commissioner for Defence and Space. Kubilius brings significant political experience to the role, having served as Prime Minister of Lithuania twice (1999-2000 and 2008-2012) and as a Member of the European Parliament since 2019. Kubilius’ priorities will revolve around establishing a “true European Defence Union” while overseeing the EU’s space portfolio, which must reflect its increasing links with the security and defence industry.

Defence
In the first 100 days of this new mandate, Kubilius will work closely with the High Representative/Vice-President, Kaja Kallas, to present the White Paper on the Future of European Defence, framing a new strategy and identifying areas that benefit from investment. This presentation will contribute to a shared vision across the Commission, the Council, Parliament, the public and other stakeholders, drawing on the work of the Niinistö report, enhancing Europe’s civilian and military preparedness, and the recent Draghi report calling for an increase in the aggregation of demand for defence products.

Kubilius will work to strengthen military mobility by removing barriers to cross-border cooperation and creating a “Single Market for Defence” enhancing production capacity, fostering joint procurement of European equipment, and beginning to integrate SMEs into the defence supply chain. Beyond this, Kubilius will lead work on proposing and implementing a plethora of Defence Projects of Common European Interest and policies like a European Air Shield, the European Defence Industrial Strategy, the European Defence Industry Programme, the European Defence Fund, the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA), and the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP).

Space
Regarding the space industry, Kubilius has been tasked with maintaining the EU’s reliable and cost-effective communications and access to space. He will be responsible for managing the EU’s satellite programmes, Copernicus and Galileo, along with establishing the EU’s new secure satellite constellation dubbed IRIS. Leading the work on space policy, Kubilius will continue the implementation of the EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence while proposing an EU Space Law to introduce common EU standards and rules for space activities and a Space Data Economic Strategy tapping into the potential of data, products and technology derived from space-related research.

Conclusions
While Member States will retain full autonomy over their military doctrines, from legislation to deployment, Kubilius will support the European defence and space industries. His approach will be guided by one principle at the foundation of his work: “Europe must spend more, spend better, spend European.”

To conclude, the appointment of Andrius Kubilius as European Commissioner for Defence and Space marks a significant step towards strengthening Europe’s security and technological capabilities. With a comprehensive agenda spanning defence cooperation, industry development, and space initiatives, Kubilius faces the difficult challenge of navigating complex geopolitical landscapes while fostering innovation and collaboration. Moreover, selecting a Lithuanian for this critical role sends a clear message to Kyiv and Moscow, reaffirming the European Union’ steadfast commitment to supporting Ukraine in the ongoing conflict.

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Compliments of Vulcan Consulting – a member of the EACCNY.