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“Safer Together”: the Niinistö report on EU preparedness and security
The European Union faces an increasingly complex landscape of security challenges—from hybrid warfare tactics and climate crises to military threats along its borders. In response to these emerging concerns, former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö -who led his country’s bid to become a NATO member- unveiled on Wednesday (30 October) a comprehensive 164-page report on the European Union’s civilian and military preparedness. The report, titled Safer Together: Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness, offers an assessment of the EU’s current readiness and provides a roadmap for addressing the complex, interconnected challenges facing the bloc.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in her opening remarks presenting the report, highlighted that: “Preparedness must become part of the underlying logic of all our actions and address the full spectrum of threats and risks.”
A fully-fledged EU service for intelligence cooperation
One of the report’s most ambitious proposals is the establishment of an EU-wide intelligence agency, designed to address cross-border threats and unify intelligence efforts across member states. Unlike existing national intelligence services, this proposed agency would work in cooperation with national agencies while enhancing the EU’s overall capacity to counter espionage, sabotage, and hybrid threats. Niinistö envisions a gradual buildup of the EU’s intelligence structures toward a fully integrated service that can address strategic and operational security needs.
The agency would not aim to replace national intelligence but rather serve as a critical mechanism for collaboration, pooling resources, and enhancing the information flow. This proposal comes in response to increasing hybrid threats, particularly from Russia, and the need for more coordinated intelligence efforts across the bloc.
Budgetary commitment to security and defence
Niinistö also calls for a substantial increase in the EU’s budget allocation for defence and crisis preparedness, recommending that “at least 20% of the overall EU budget contributes to the EU’s security and crisis preparedness”. This recommendation is particularly significant, serving as a signal to the United States that Europe is committed to taking greater responsibility for its defence.
“If we are not doing all we can for our own security, we cannot expect others to do it for us,” Niinistö emphasized in the report, urging EU member states to move decisively in closing longstanding gaps with allies in military readiness and industrial defence capabilities.
Hybrid Threats
With a sharp increase in hybrid threats, particularly from Russia, the Niinistö report dedicates a section to the “growing threat” posed by malicious cyber campaigns, disinformation, and the use of migrants as tools of political manipulation. The report highlights that the EU should build on recent legislation, such as the European Media Freedom Act and the Digital Services Act, to counteract the spread of disinformation and safeguard democratic values.
Additionally, Niinistö calls for cross-sector tools to protect intellectual property and technological innovations, particularly in high-stakes areas like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and microchip manufacturing. The report also warns of the escalating risks posed by climate change, stressing the need for a proactive stance on climate resilience.
Conclusions
The Niinistö report transcends traditional analysis, offering a strategic roadmap for European resilience. It challenges the EU to shift from reactive crisis management to proactive preparedness by identifying and addressing critical vulnerabilities.
Drawing on Lenin’s strategic advice—”Probe with bayonets: if you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw”—the report exposes how modern adversaries seek to exploit European weaknesses. From social fragmentation to economic dependencies, these strategic probes aim to destabilize the EU.
The document’s core message is clear: Europe must become a fortress. This means fortifying intelligence networks, increasing security investments, and deepening cooperation among member states. The goal is not just defence, but prevention—transforming potential vulnerabilities into strengths.
The European Commission’s 2024 Enlargement Package
On Wednesday (30 October), the European Commission adopted its annual Enlargement Package, which provides a detailed assessment of the state of play and the progress made by Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine and Türkiye. The assessments are joined by recommendations and guidance for the reform priorities on their respective paths towards EU accession.
The enlargement process is merit-based and investigates the progress made by each of the countries. It offers an opportunity for both EU member states and partner countries to gain political, socio-economic, and security benefits from a larger, stronger Union. Democracy and the rule of law are the foundations of the enlargement process. The enlargement process gained new momentum in 2023 and 2024 with the opening of accession negotiations with Albania, Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In Montenegro, progress is still required in terms of the rule of law and in the judiciary. For Albania, it is crucial for the authorities to intensify the pace of EU reforms, mostly on the rule of law, consolidating the track record on law enforcement, promotion of fundamental rights, media freedom, and effectively fighting corruption and organised crime. Serbia is expected to speed up efforts toward implementing EU-accession-related reforms, with a particular focus on the rule of law and shutting down foreign disinformation and manipulation. North Macedonia still needs to deliver on the implementation of EU-related reforms, notably in the judiciary and in the fight against corruption and organised crime. Bosnia and Herzegovina has shown notable results in migration management and in alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy.
Kosovo must intensify efforts to strengthen the rule of law and protect freedom of expression, while Moldova’s path to EU accession continues to face Russian interference. Subject to Ukraine meeting all the conditions, the Commission is looking to the opening of negotiations on clusters, starting with fundamentals, as early as 2025. The Georgian government have halted accession talks, while Türkiye is recognised as a candidate country and a crucial partner for the European Union.
The Council will consider the recommendations laid out by the European Commission and make decisions on the steps ahead for each country in the enlargement process. New tools and instruments are boosting the socio-economic growth in the EU’s partner countries, such as increased financial assistance and some benefits of the single market. In addition to the economic and Investment Plans, there is a €6 billion Reform & Growth Facility for the Western Balkans and a €50 billion Ukraine Facility. The Commission also presented the Growth Plan for Moldova, comprising a €1.8 billion Reform & Facility.
Support for Fianna Fáil is on the rise ahead of the upcoming election
The latest Red C poll shows Fianna Fáil closing in on Fine Gael, only trailing behind by 1 per cent. Support for Fianna Fáil has increased by 3 points, reaching 21 per cent, while Fine Gael remains firmly in the lead at 22 per cent. This puts the two parties in the ideal position to form another coalition government together, positioning both parties as crucial players in the next election. To put this rise into perspective, in October 2023, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were over 10 points behind Sinn Féin, whose popularity stood at 32 per cent.
Regarding Sinn Féin, recent controversies occurred after this poll was conducted. There was a 1 per cent drop from September’s figures to 17 per cent. However, over half of respondents view Sinn Féin as unfit to govern, with significant scepticism surrounding Mary Lou McDonald’s suitability as Taoiseach. This perception puts a notable strain on Sinn Féin heading into the next election as a large portion of their 2020 voter base now views them as less government-ready. It was noted that nearly one-third of Sinn Féin voters who voted for the party in the general election of 2020 feel the party is fit for government.
In terms of the other parties, the Independents are following closely behind Sinn Féin at 15 per cent, while the Social Democrats and Independent Ireland hold firm at 5 per cent. Ivana Bacik’s Labour Party stands at 4 per cent, one per cent higher than Roderic O’Gorman’s Green Party, who have slipped this month by 1 per cent. Finally, PBP-Solidarity remains at 3 per cent, with Aontú at the bottom of the list with 2 per cent support.
Compliments of Vulcan Consulting – a member of the EACCNY