Vulcan View: The latest EU developments 19 May – 23 May

EU and the UK sign Security and Defence Partnership

On Monday, 19 May, European Commission President von der Leyen, European Council President Costa and European Commissioner with responsibility for the EU-UK Relationship Maroš Šefčovič held the first official post-Brexit EU-UK Summit with UK Prime Minister Starmer and Minister for EU Relations Nick Thomas-Symonds. As expected, the Summit brought an Agreement on an EU-UK Security and Defence Partnership. Still, it was light in concrete deliverables otherwise, apart from an extension of the full reciprocal access to fishing waters beyond 30 June 2026 and until 30 June 2038.

Apart from a Joint Statement, the parties agreed on the following points:

• A new Strategic Partnership building on the “stable foundation of the relationship” set by the Withdrawal Agreement, including the Windsor Framework and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
• A Declaration on the Common Understanding between both parties on the way forward, including energy, migration, SPS and Youth Mobility.

The EU and UK agreed on a Security and Defence Partnership to address shared threats in an increasingly unstable global environment, especially in light of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Both parties reaffirmed their commitment to international law, democracy, and multilateral collaboration in cyber-defence, counterterrorism, crisis management and maritime and space security. Additionally, both parties aim to deepen coordination in peacekeeping and foreign policy while reinforcing NATO cooperation across Europe.

Meanwhile, the comprehensive 61-point Declaration on the Common Understanding outlines high-level common aspects on which the EU and UK agree as part of ongoing and future negotiations. the text highlights the ongoing divisions in the negotiations regarding the UK’s involvement in the European Union’s internal electricity market. It also addresses the linkage between the EU and UK Emissions Trading Systems (ETS), the EU-UK SPS Agreement, and the establishment of an EU-UK Youth Mobility Scheme. These matters have been under negotiation for several years.

Moving forward, there will be:

• Regular exchanges between EU and UK interlocutors,
• A foreign and security policy dialogue every six months between the UK Foreign and Defence secretaries and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs.
• Annual Summits to strengthen the relationship and drive progress on the renewed agenda for EU-UK cooperation.

Pro-European candidates win in Romania, Poland, and Portugal amid far-right surge 

Voters in Romania, Poland, and Portugal cast their ballots in pivotal elections on Sunday, (18 May), revealing Europe’s deepening political divisions and the far-right’s rising influence. While pro-European candidates narrowly clinched presidential victories in Romania and Poland’s first-round vote, and a center-right coalition led Portugal’s legislative race, these wins were tempered by surging support for far-right parties—a trend leaving European leaders both relieved and uneasy about the continent’s political trajectory.

Romania: A pro-European victory after a far-right scare

In Romania, the presidential run-off election saw independent pro-European candidate Nicușor Dan secure a surprising victory with 53.6% of the vote, defeating George Simion of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). Simion, who garnered 46.4%. Mr. Simion emerged as the far-right candidate after the Romanian Constitutional Court invalidated the results of the first round of the presidential election in December. This ruling followed the discovery of foreign intervention aimed at aiding far-right candidate Calin Georgescu in winning the initial round.  The second round of the elections was marked by a record-breaking turnout of nearly 65% (over 11.6 million voters), demonstrating the high stakes perceived by the electorate.

Mr. Dan, the 55-year-old incumbent mayor of Bucharest and a staunch supporter of EU and NATO ties, campaigned on a platform of justice, administrative reform, and continued support for Ukraine. His opponent, Mr. Simion, ran on a nationalist-populist agenda, echoing Trump-style rhetoric and raising concerns with his Eurosceptic stances and past claims on neighbouring territories.

The aftermath of the vote was not without drama. Despite initial indications that George Simion would accept the result, on Tuesday (21 May), he formally announced a challenge to the results in Romania’s Constitutional Court, claiming foreign interference by France and Moldova. Nonetheless, the Constitutional Court validated the results of the election on Thursday (22 May).

Poland: pro-European candidate leads, but far-right looms large in run-off

Poland’s presidential election saw a first-round vote where no candidate achieved an outright majority, setting the stage for a run-off on 1 June. Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw and candidate for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, emerged as the frontrunner with 31.36% of the vote. He will face Karol Nawrocki, an independent candidate backed by the ultra-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, who secured 29.54% of the ballots.

Mr. Trzaskowski has campaigned on strengthening Poland’s role within the EU and reversing controversial judicial and social reforms enacted under the previous PiS government. Mr. Nawrocki, conversely, presented a Brussels-sceptic and anti-Ukrainian platform. The combined vote share for Mr. Nawrocki and other far-right candidates, such as Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation party (who won 14.81%), highlights the significant presence of nationalist and ultraconservative sentiment in the country. Mr. Nawrocki has already appealed to Mr. Mentzen’s supporters to unite behind him in the second round. The outcome of this run-off will be pivotal in determining Poland’s trajectory, either accelerating Tusk’s liberal agenda or potentially creating further institutional deadlock.

Portugal: centre-right wins, but far-right Chega party skyrockets

In Portugal’s snap legislative elections, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s conservative Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition secured the most votes, winning 32.7% and 89 parliamentary seats. However, they fell short of an absolute majority -116 seats out of 230 in the Portuguese Parliament. The most striking development was the historic surge of the far-right Chega party, led by André Ventura. Chega dramatically increased its support to 22.6% of the vote, tying with the Socialist Party, which received 23.4%, in parliamentary representation with 58 seats each. The poor results of the Socialists can be read as a punishment to the party after they forced Mr. Montenegro to call for snap elections, which many voters saw as unnecessary.

This result effectively upended Portugal’s traditional two-party system, which has dominated since the 1974 Carnation Revolution. The Socialist leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, acknowledged the “difficult era for the left” and announced his resignation. While Montenegro has ruled out a coalition with Chega, the far-right party’s meteoric rise from a single lawmaker in 2019 to a significant parliamentary force signals a profound shift. Chega’s success was fuelled by voter frustration over housing costs, healthcare, and immigration, particularly resonating in southern agricultural regions. The challenge for Mr. Montenegro will be to form a stable government in this newly fragmented political landscape.

Conclusions

While pro-European forces might breathe a sigh of temporary relief following the results of these three elections, the underlying narrative from last Sunday across these three nations is one of the undeniable and growing influence of far-right parties. This trend is not isolated but reflects a broader pattern across the European Union.

The elections demonstrated that even when centrist candidates win, the margins can be tight, and the support for nationalist, Eurosceptic, and populist agendas is substantial and expanding. In Romania, Mr. Simion’s strong showing kept the EU on edge. In Poland, the combined support for ultraconservative and far-right candidates exceeded 50% in the first round. In Portugal, Chega has transformed into a significant parliamentary force, illustrating a notable shift in the political landscape.

The broader implication of these results is that the EU must continue to grapple with the rising tide of nationalism and far-right populism. While models of democratic coalitions have offered resistance, as seen in Poland’s 2023 elections, Sunday’s results confirm that the challenge is far from over.

Ibec sets out infrastructure asks ahead of Government Action Plan on competitiveness and productivity

In advance of the Government’s Action Plan on Competitiveness, Ibec launched its ‘Our Business Ambition’ Campaign.  The first policy position paper of the series is an infrastructure-focused piece. Within this, the group told the Government that infrastructure investment should take precedence over tax cuts or other types of expenditure. It called on the Government to reduce red tape in the planning system for large “common good” projects. To support large-scale infrastructure delivery, Ibec urged planning system reform, including curbing the “disproportionate influence” of individual objectors. It also called for faster project delivery through centralised oversight and a restructured planning process. Of 44 major projects planned in 2019, only 11 were delivered on time.

Moreover, the paper recommends the establishment of an Expert Review Group to determine the correct avenue to rebalancing individual rights and the public good within Ireland’s legal administrative systems in the context of infrastructure delivery. Further, Ibec proposes the development of a new central statutory body to progress large-scale infrastructure projects through the planning system. This would address the lack of coordination and fragmentation within the planning process, according to the group.

The paper highlights the critical role of the private sector in delivering infrastructure, especially in the energy, health, and transport sectors. Ibec suggests establishing a permanent forum for private infrastructure investors to enhance project viability and attract future investments.

Additionally, the paper examines the Minister’s role in the efficient delivery of infrastructure projects. It recommends strategic infrastructure projects to be prioritised within the planning system with timely Ministerial directives issued to expedite essential supporting projects

This comes as the Cabinet Subcommittee on Infrastructure begins examining the delivery times for major infrastructure projects, which have only worsened in recent years. Despite the significant step forward made by Minister Jack Chambers with the establishment of a new infrastructure division and task force within the Department of Public Expenditure, Infrastructure, and Reform, there remains a considerable gap between current efforts and the scale of what is needed. The task force is expected to publish a report on the barriers to infrastructure development in July.

Compliments of Vulcan Consulting – a member of the EACCNY