Vulcan View: The latest EU developments 27 October – 31 October

Catherine Connolly elected as Irish President amid unprecedented voter protest

Catherine Connolly, an independent TD and former Leas-Cheann Comhairle, was elected as Ireland’s 10^th President on 24 October with approximately 63.4% of valid first-preference votes. Voter turnout was around 45.8%, one of the lowest in recent decades, while spoiled or invalid ballots totalled roughly 213,738, about 12.9% of votes cast.

This presidential election marked the culmination of a campaign defined more by tone and turnout than by controversy. The presidency remains one of the country’s most respected institutions, largely ceremonial yet symbolically powerful, representing the Irish people at home and abroad. This election took place against a backdrop of shifting public expectations, global uncertainty, and renewed debate about Ireland’s place in a changing Europe. Voter participation was subdued, and a strikingly high number of spoiled ballots suggested a wider unease with the political status quo.

Election Results & Voter Behaviour

Connolly’s victory was decisive; her nearest rival, Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael, receiving just under 30% of valid votes. Yet, the number of spoiled ballots has drawn significant comment. Reports from count centres indicated that many ballots were intentionally invalidated, some bearing messages or names of non-candidates. Analysts suggest that, taken together with the low turnout, this points to a degree of disengagement or disillusionment rather than administrative error.

Significance of the Spoiled-Vote Pattern

The level of spoiled votes, nearly 13% of all ballots cast, is unprecedented in a modern Irish election. While not directed at any one candidate, the figure reflects a degree of voter frustration with the limited choice on offer and with the perceived distance between politics and the public. Reports from count centres indicated that many ballots were deliberately invalidated, often marked with messages or names of non-candidates, suggesting a conscious form of protest rather than disengagement.

Compared with the 1.2% spoil rate in 2018, this represents a sharp rise and a signal of dissatisfaction rather than apathy. Analysts note that the scale of invalid votes highlights a broader challenge for Ireland’s democracy: maintaining voter confidence and participation in a political system that remains stable but increasingly questioned.

Presidency in the Security & Defence Context 

Although the presidency holds limited executive authority, the president is head of state and constitutionally designated Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Forces. The position therefore carries symbolic weight in matters of national identity and security policy. Ms Connolly has previously expressed strong support for Ireland’s long-standing policy of military neutrality, arguing that Ireland’s security should be rooted in diplomacy, humanitarian engagement, and multilateral cooperation.

Across Europe, Member States have expanded cooperation in response to new security challenges, including the war in Ukraine, cyberattacks, and threats to maritime and energy infrastructure. These developments have prompted reflection in traditionally non-aligned countries such as Ireland, Austria, and Malta about how best to contribute to collective European resilience. Ms Connolly’s presidency is expected to maintain Ireland’s neutral position while continuing to engage in areas such as crisis management, humanitarian aid, and peacekeeping.

Conclusion

The 2025 presidential election delivered both clarity and commentary: a clear victory for Catherine Connolly, and a message from many voters about representation and trust. Connolly’s presidency will begin on 11 November 2025 amid wider European discussion on neutrality, security, and democratic engagement. How these conversations evolve may define not only the tone of her term, but also Ireland’s image within a rapidly changing European security landscape.

Dutch election forecast shows a win for progressive liberal D66 party

Wednesday’s vote (29 October) signalled a political change, and much of the same. Based on the latest exit polls, the progressive-liberal D66 (Renew) is expected to win narrowly from the far-right, anti-immigration PVV (Patriots) (99.6% of votes counted, waiting for results from five municipalities and over 135,000 mail-in ballots). Having campaigned on pragmatic optimism, the D66 leader now takes the lead in forming a government to tackle long-standing issues.

Mr Jetten’s D66 would prefer a coalition between Christian-conservative CDA (EVP), conservative-liberal VVD (Renew) and centre-left GreenLeft-Labour (GL-PvdA, Greens and S&D). However, VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz has run her campaign calling a left-wing coalition with GL-PvdA “totally unbelievable”. All parties have explicitly excluded PVV’s Geert Wilders from working together.

The only other potential coalition partner, the far-right JA21 (ECR), would be endorsed by the VVD. Meanwhile D66 and CDA have publicly stated that major policy differences on asylum, climate, and nitrogen complicate talks. This coalition would also lack sufficient backing in the Senate.

Jetten has emphasised the need for a “stable cabinet with all the positive forces in the centre”. CDA leader Henri Bontenbal wants a “stable, competent government”, stressing the importance of accountability (but signalled on Thursday that coalitions without his party “are also possible”). GL-PvdA leader and former Commissioner Frans Timmermans has resigned after disappointing early results, which could ease relations with other parties, as many of the other leaders complained about poor personal relations.

What it means for business

For business, the overall outlook is one of stability and continuity, rather than sweeping change. D66, VVD, CDA and GL-PvdA have all underwritten the importance of European competitiveness, strategic investment, and a predictable regulatory environment. Priorities include innovation, energy transition, and industrial resilience in key sectors such as semiconductors, clean energy, and defence.

D66, VVD and CDA share a pro-business, market-oriented stance, suggesting tax and regulatory stability. GL-PvdA’s participation could bring calls for higher corporate taxes or stricter social and environmental standards, though these would likely be moderated in a centrist coalition. CDA campaigned on a “freedom contribution” to finance increased defence spending, paid in equal parts by industry, citizens, and government spending cuts. All parties back simpler rules, faster permitting, and less red tape, which could ease compliance costs.

Outstanding questions

The bigger question is whether a new coalition will finally deliver structural reforms in infrastructure, labour mobility and agriculture to safeguard competitiveness. Congested electricity grids have prevented industry from electrifying to cut energy costs. A lack of supply-side guidance has, moreover, favoured established but low-performing sectors reliant on migrant labour, exacerbating pressures on housing, welfare, and social cohesion. High nitrogen emissions caused by intensive agriculture are capping opportunities for housing and industry.

The last coalition operated in a constant campaign mode, making it nearly impossible to reach compromises on these issues. It remains uncertain whether a new coalition will be differ and effectively tackle these interlinked issues.

EU Ambassadors ask Commission to delay deforestation law

On Wednesday (29 October), most member states’ EU ambassadors (their highest EU representatives) asked the European Commission to delay the enforcement of the Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR). This would go beyond the Commission’s earlier proposal to postpone compliance only for small companies until December 2026. The ambassadors requested that the 30 December 2025 deadline be delayed for all operators.

The ambassadors’ move follows growing concern that neither companies nor authorities are ready for implementation. The central IT platform, which companies must use to upload geolocation data proving their products are deforestation-free, is not yet fully operational. Member states warn that the system risks being overloaded once all operators try to register simultaneously.

Context

The goal of the Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR) is novel: ensuring that products consumed by EU citizens should not contribute to deforestation and forest degradation worldwide.

The practice is more complicated: since it’s adoption by the Parliament and Council in May 2023, the law has faced repeated delays due to missing database systems and political backlash from industry and trading partners.

Simplification

Governments are also inclined to wait until the rules are simplified. Last week, the Commission proposed changes that would reduce data requirements and establish a new category for “micro and small primary operators”. This category mainly includes small farmers and foresters, who would only need to provide the postal code of their land. It would also restrict due diligence obligations to importers, exempting downstream operators from filing their own declarations.

However, while member states broadly welcome these changes, many say they do not go far enough. During Wednesday’s meeting, several countries pressed for a broader delay, arguing that implementation should only follow once the simplified rules are agreed upon. Agriculture ministers from Czechia, Latvia, Estonia and Poland had already called earlier this week for an extension and for certain “low-risk” countries to be exempted. Others, including Denmark and Sweden, said they could accept a short technical delay but oppose reopening the regulation.

Internal discussions

Inside the Commission, opinions also remain divided. Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall said at the end of last month that she was considering a one-year delay. Several departments, including trade, were reportedly caught off guard by her remarks.

Executive Vice-President Teresa Ribera pushed back, insisting that technical issues should not justify reopening the law or postponing its entry into force. She urged services to “find alternatives” and fix the system “as soon as possible.” The split reflects wider tensions in the College, with centre-right commissioners favouring delays and Social Democrats and Greens pushing to keep the rules.”

Race against the clock

The Danish EU Presidency is expected to circulate a compromise proposal next week. A deal would need to be reached before the Parliament’s final plenary of the year on 15 December if the revised text is to enter into force before the current deadline.

 

Compliments of Vulcan Consulting – a member of the EACCNY