Jaguar Freight | The Weekly Roar: Preparedness = Proactive Planning and Preparation

In this week’s Roar: More on the U.S.-China trade deal, the latest Logistics Manager Index, the October PMI, shifting air freight markets, and thoughts on supply chain disruption.

We noted last week that President Trump and President Xi reached a trade deal addressing several issues, and more details have been published. These include China lifting its export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, suspending tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, resuming soybean purchases, and stopping semiconductor investigations. Both sides agreed to delay the implementation of maritime-related sanctions. The U.S. will reduce certain tariffs and extend exclusions, resulting in an effective average rate of U.S. tariffs of 47% moving forward. In additional tariff news, the Supreme Court heard arguments last week on the legality of Section 301 tariffs. However, a decision is likely a month or more away.

The October Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) held steady at 57.4, but there are some big shifts hidden under that apparent stability. Inventory and warehousing activity cooled off, while transportation came roaring back. Inventory Levels dipped as holiday shopping kicked off, easing warehouse utilization. Meanwhile, transportation metrics surged in late October. Transportation Prices jumped 7.5 points to 61.7, and Utilization climbed 7.3 points to 57.3, mostly thanks to increased retail demand. That shift suggests that goods are finally moving again after months of being stagnant.

U.S. manufacturing contracted in October, with ISM’s PMI falling 0.4 points to 48.7%, despite improved demand indicators. Production deteriorated after September’s expansion, while tariffs remain the primary concern for manufacturers. The data show that customer inventories have decreased, similar to the LMI, suggesting the potential for new near-term reorders. Employment slowed, and 58% of manufacturing GDP remained in contraction. Business sentiment has been largely dampened by tariff uncertainty and policy concerns.

Supply chains continue to evolve as markets change. Global air freight is shifting toward Asia-Europe corridors, driven by 18% e-commerce growth in early 2025. This is a strong trend with Chinese low-value exports skyrocketing by 45% annually since 2019, adding more than four million tons of volume. Middle Eastern hubs are transitioning from transit points to strategic players, with double-digit capacity growth on Asia-Middle East-Europe routes. Most new freighter orders are now going to Middle Eastern carriers, a move that could reshape how intercontinental capacity is managed.

Supply chain disruptions can fall into three categories: man-made (tariffs, strikes, geopolitical conflicts), acts of God (hurricanes, floods, volcanoes), and technology (cyberattacks and ransomware). If organizations want to build resilience, they need to assume disruptions will occur, integrate disruption management into their corporate culture, leverage digital twins for scenario planning, develop comprehensive disruption metrics, and regularly stress-test their networks. The more supply chains digitize, the less preparedness becomes optional.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights here.

Compliments of Jaguar Freight – A member of the EACCNY