Jaguar Freight | The Big Squeeze

In this week’s Roar: Air cargo rates up, electronic tariff refund Phase 1, new emergency surcharges, the state of the global maritime system, and how AI is handling operational bottlenecks.

Since mid-March, air cargo rates are up 10% as the war in Iran has squeezed capacity, pushed up oil prices, and disrupted flights across the Middle East. Jet fuel costs have nearly doubled, resulting in new surcharges on many routes. For shipments where time is of the essence, there are now frequent delays averaging four to eight days, which have pushed shippers and logistics providers to adjust their strategies. Another issue to watch: Europe reportedly has only 6 weeks of jet fuel on hand before a severe shortage would occur.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection is fully launching its tariff refund portal on April 20, allowing businesses to begin submitting their electronic refund claims for the more than $127 billion in IEEPA tariffs. The new system, which is part of the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries program, promises streamlined processing, but industry experts caution that CBP still plans to maintain rigorous review standards. Importers owed refunds should review the requirements and process detailed in the CBP update asap to get the process underway.

Major ocean carriers implemented new or revised emergency surcharges on April 18 as fuel costs and supply disruptions persist. Maersk has introduced a $100 per container intermodal surcharge for U.S. and Canada moves, and that will appear on invoices with its emergency bunker fee. ONE has shifted to a new inland haulage pricing structure, and CMA CGM has adjusted its India-origin EFS. As bunker prices continue to fluctuate, further surcharge increases seem likely.

Some would say that despite recent tensions in hotspots like the Strait of Hormuz, the global maritime system isn’t unraveling. It’s just operating under more pressure. Major sea lanes are still open, but the industry is dealing with increased crisis, coercion, and market-driven risk prices, all of which are making disruptions more frequent and more costly. So global maritime trade continues, but there’s less slack and greater sensitivity to global shocks and volatility.

Don’t expect AI to erase operational bottlenecks. It’s just going to shift them. Yes, analytical capacity will expand, but the constraints will shift to data quality, decision rights, and human judgment. Organizations will either thrive because they’ve properly invested in a solid data architecture, clarified their decisions, and upskilled their people. Or organizations will stumble because of carriers they did not foresee.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights here.