12 May
Chapter News

ECB | Keeping a steady hand in an unsteady world

Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges”, Stanford University Standard theory of monetary policy rests on a simple premise: a stable relationship between inflation and the output gap. This is the logic behind the Phillips curve, which, in its most common form, relates inflation to a measure of economic slack, expected inflation and supply shocks. The relationship between output and inflation was already under scrutiny...

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12 May
Chapter News

OECD | Export restrictions on critical raw materials rise sharply amid growing demand

New OECD data shows export restrictions for critical raw materials are becoming increasingly widespread as demand surges, driven by the green and digital transitions and rising concerns over economic security. The OECD Inventory of Export Restrictions on Industrial Raw Materials offers key insights for policymakers and stakeholders to help identify less restrictive ways to meet both the security of supply needs of importing countries and the development goals of resource-rich nations. It provides annually updated data on the scope, type, and evolution...

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12 May
Chapter News

European Commission | Investment leaders in Brussels to discuss competitiveness strategies

Executive Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy, Stéphane Séjourné, is opening today the second edition of the InvestEU High-Level Event in Brussels. The event provides an outlook on the contribution of InvestEU to Europe's competitiveness, the flexibility offered by the instrument in de-risking and attracting private investments, as well as the role that InvestEU can play in the future MFF and the European Competitiveness Fund. The programme highlights InvestEU's growing impact across key areas such as innovation, decarbonisation and the social sector. It...

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09 May
Chapter News

European Commission | EU consults on possible countermeasures and readies WTO litigation in response to US tariffs

The European Commission has launched a public consultation on a list of US imports which could become subject to EU countermeasures, if ongoing EU-US negotiations do not result in a mutually beneficial outcome and the removal of the US tariffs. The list put to consultation concerns imports from the US worth €95 billion, covering a broad range of industrial and agricultural products. The Commission is also consulting on possible restrictions on certain EU exports of steel scrap and chemical products to the US worth €4.4 billion....

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09 May
Chapter News

NY Fed | Inflation Expectations Mixed; Financial Outlook for Households Deteriorates

NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the April 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations were unchanged over the short term, increased over the medium term, and decreased over the longer term. Labor market expectations largely deteriorated in April, with households having lower expectations for both earnings growth and finding a job. Households also expect lower income growth over the next year, and their perceptions about both their current...

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09 May
Member News

Vulcan View: The latest EU developments 5 May – 9 May

European Commission launches public consultation on U.S. countermeasures and prepares WTO challenge On Thursday, 8 May, the European Commission opened a four-week public consultation on a list of U.S. imports worth €95 billion subject to countermeasures, and on possible restrictions on certain EU exports to the US. This comes as the Commission is negotiating a mutually beneficial solution to U.S. tariffs—otherwise it will proceed both with targeted EU duties and a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute. The list covers U.S. industrial and agricultural goods totalling...

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08 May
Member News, Trade & TTIP Related

Transatlantic Trade Monitor: Facts You Need Now | The Direct Investment Imperative: Learning from History’s Trade Conflicts

By Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets If trade imbalances truly drive protectionist backlash, as many claim, we should have witnessed comparable anti-trade sentiment during the 1980s when America's deficit with Japan reached historic proportions. Yet history reveals a critical distinction: Japan was offered—and wisely seized—an economic escape valve that today's geopolitical climate threatens to deny China. This asymmetry not only betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how global trade evolved but risks triggering an unprecedented economic disruption. Japan's solution...

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08 May
Chapter News, Trade & TTIP Related

US Department of Commerce | The Department of Commerce together with USTR Announces Historic Trade Deal with the United Kingdom to Open Markets, Raise Revenue and Strengthen Security

WASHINGTON D.C. — Today, the United States and the United Kingdom announced a historic trade deal – providing unprecedented access to the U.K. markets while bolstering U.S. national security.  The reciprocal tariff rate of 10%, as originally announced on Liberation Day, will remain. The trade deal will increase tariff revenue dramatically, bringing in billions of dollars in new revenue.  The deal removes longstanding U.K. market barriers creating a $5 billion opportunity of new exports for U.S. farmers, ranchers, and producers. These exports include...

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08 May
Chapter News

ECB | Foreign workers: a lever for economic growth

By Oscar Arce, Agostino Consolo, António Dias da Silva and Marco Weissler | Foreign workers play an increasingly important role in the euro area labour markets. This ECB blog analyses the effects migrants had on growth across the largest countries in recent years. It also discusses changing labour market participation patterns among foreign workers. Sluggish productivity growth and weak capital accumulation have hampered post-pandemic recovery in the euro area. Amid this weakness, population growth and increasing labour force participation stabilised the...

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07 May
Member News, Trade & TTIP Related

Transatlantic Trade Monitor: Facts You Need Now | Requiem for the dollar?

By Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM Key takeaways The U.S. attempt to rebalance the global economy has resulted in the flight of capital out of the country. The primary consequence of this effort has been a declining dollar and rising Treasury yields. Any policy that devalues the dollar or seeks to end its status as the reserve currency harms American interests. The United States’ attempt to rebalance the global economy to better serve its interests has resulted in the flight of...

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