HSBC | Global Trade Pulse Survey – Global Businesses Adapting to Trade Uncertainty and Building Resilience

Business leaders worldwide have grown more confident about international trade compared to six months ago. This is driven by the adoption of new strategies, deployment of new technologies, and exploration of new markets. However, uncertainty surrounding the global economic and political landscape continues to challenge corporate decision-making. Rising costs and widespread liquidity pressures remain key concerns.

Following the release of the first report in May 2025, this latest edition provides fresh insights from 6,750 business leaders across 17 markets survey conducted in October 2025.

Global sentiment – Adapting to the new normal

While negotiations between major trading nations continue, businesses today have a clearer picture about the outlook for international trade than they did earlier this year. Globally, 67% have more certainty about the impact of trade policy on their business than they did six months ago.

More than three quarters (77%) say it is easy for them to understand the impact of recent trade policy changes on their business. Consumer-facing businesses are more likely to have a clearer picture: 80% of B2C businesses find it easy to understand the implications, versus 69% for the B2B segment.

Fears of a severe hit to revenues have also eased since our previous Global Trade Pulse survey was conducted in April. Globally, 22% are worried about a negative impact on revenues of over 25% over the next two years as a result of supply chain disruption, down from 37% six months ago.

Most companies now expect revenues to increase in the next six months (53%) and over the next two years (58%). This mirrors an improvement in global trade conditions since the April survey. Trade in both goods and services increased strongly in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the previous three months, according to UN trade data, which estimates robust annual growth rates of about 5% for goods and 6% for services on a rolling 12-month basis.

Costs – Widespread impact

Trade disruptions are affecting businesses of all sizes and across all sectors. Globally, 66% expect their costs to increase over the next six months as a result of tariffs and trade uncertainty, with little variance across industries or market segments.

Tariffs are the primary driver of increased costs. Among businesses reporting higher costs, 54% say that tariffs and customs duties have added to their cost base over the past six months. With baseline tariffs of 10% or more now in place for a wide range of US imports, many businesses that had previously been exempt from trade levies are now facing a new reality.

While cost pressures are widespread, the drivers differ across markets. Among those reporting higher costs, 59% of businesses in Southeast Asia say tariffs have added to their cost base over the past six months, compared with 46% in MENAT. Expectations also differ: 79% of US businesses expect costs to increase over the next six months, compared to just 42% of those in Italy.

Cost increases cannot be attributed to tariffs alone. Among businesses reporting increased costs, almost half have faced higher costs for shipping or freight (47%), raw materials (44%), and 43% say their suppliers have increased pricing. Notably conglomerates cited increases in shipping costs (57%) over the past six months as the top cost driver.

With respect to size of businesses, the biggest disparity was noted in compliance costs. Large corporates with annual turnover of over USD2 billion are also more likely to report higher compliance costs (41%), versus 34% of businesses with revenues below USD500 million.

This illustrates the breadth of cost pressures facing global businesses and underscoring the need for sharp scenario planning and clear coping  trategies. While businesses now see trade uncertainty as a new normal, many continue to defer spending decisions. Six in 10 are holding back from international investments, in line with our earlier survey (62%). A higher percentage (77%) have adopted a more flexible investment strategy to manage ongoing trade risks.

Corporate responses – Diverse coping strategies

While fears of a significant disruption to global trade have eased, companies continue to take steps to adjust pricing, build resilience in their operations and diversify their revenues.

More than three quarters (76%) are taking multiple actions in response to increased costs. These include passing on a proportion of cost increases to their customers, renegotiating supply contracts and payment terms, as well as steps to build operational efficiency through investments in AI and automation.

Diversification is a clear priority – both in supply chains and sales strategies. Globally, 84% are taking steps to diversify their supply chains or have already done so, making this the most common response to trade risks. Businesses are already taking action, larger corporates are leading the way, 44% of companies with annual revenues of over USD2 billion have already taken action, compared to 37% of those with revenues below USD500 million. By sector, TMT businesses are the most likely to have already diversified their supply chains (44%), ahead of those in the consumer sector (35%), conglomerates (34%) and commercial real estate (34%).

Trade uncertainty is also driving the search for new revenue streams to mitigate trade exposure. Half of all respondents are planning to enter new markets (50%), 47% are rebalancing their mix of products or services while 47% are scenario planning and 43% are planning mergers or acquisitions.

Further changes may be on the cards as businesses gain the additional clarity they need to move ahead with strategic decisions. Globally, 75% are either considering or have already made changes to where substantial transformation (e.g. assembly, processing) occurs. This suggests the full impact of trade and tariff changes on the global supply chain has yet to become clear.

Preparedness – Uneven preparedness levels

The latest Global Trade Pulse survey revealed contrasting levels of preparedness across different markets.

Businesses in the US are the most likely to feel prepared to respond to changes in trade regulations, with 52% saying they are well informed and prepared. That compares to 35% of companies in Europe and 32% in East Asia and North Asia. Businesses in Hong Kong and Italy rank as the least prepared of all markets in our survey, with only one in five businesses (20%) feeling well informed and prepared.

Clarity around trade policy is an important factor: businesses with high levels of certainty around policy impacts are also more likely to feel prepared and more confident about their growth prospects.

B2B businesses are less certain about trade policy impact (56%) than their consumer-facing peers (72%).

Tariffs are the number one factor influencing revenues, with 48% of global businesses seeing an impact over the past 6 months, followed by pricing changes (47%). Businesses relying entirely on goods are more exposed to revenue shocks as a result of trade uncertainty: 42% of this segment report a negative impact on revenues compared to six months ago, compared to only 33% of services businesses. Over half of goods-focused businesses (55%) are expecting a negative impact on their business in the next six months, compared to 44% of companies that only sell services.

The divergence between goods and services businesses mirrors global growth trends, with services exports globally outpacing goods volumes. In 2024, services trade totalled US$ 8.7 trillion, increasing by 9% and mirroring growth in the previous year. This is in sharp contrast with goods trade, which rose by only 2 per cent in 2024.

A quarter (26%) of services-focused companies have had their exports negatively impacted compared to 45% goods-focused companies. Businesses  in the consumer sector are relatively less confident about growth – less than half (46%) expect to grow revenues in the near term. Consistent with the global enthusiasm around technology, respondents from the TMT sector are the most bullish about growing revenues: 59% expect growth over the next six months.

Working capital – Liquidity takes centre stage

With global trade still in flux, business leaders are taking steps to shore up their balance sheets.

62% have seen working capital needs increase in 2025, led by India (77%) and the US (73%). These changes are apparent in every segment, with ome variance across sectors. Businesses in the TMT sector (69%) are more likely to face higher working capital requirements, with those in healthcare 56%) at the other end of the scale. Two thirds (67%) of B2C businesses report an increase in working capital needs, compared to 52% in the B2B sector, while working capital is less of an issue for companies that are reliant on services (49%) versus those selling both goods and services (63%). Business size offers little protection: 20% of the largest companies in the survey have faced serious liquidity issues, compared to 15% of those with revenues below USD500 million.

At the same time, almost one in five (18%) have been able to free up working capital through operational efficiencies, underlining the role of  reasurers and finance teams in the response to trade uncertainty.

Banks also have a critical role to play in solving for changes in funding requirements. Almost nine in 10 (89%) agree that trade-related volatility will make banks more important to their businesses in the next 2-3 years.

The number one sector which thinks banks will be important is TMT (92%) compared to the average at 89%. Diversification is also in focus when it comes to funding sources. Two thirds (66%) have sought alternative financing because of funding gaps, while 67% have used more short-term financing to address their working capital needs. Businesses in Malaysia (81%) and Vietnam (78%) are especially likely to have turned to short-term funding.

At a time when monetary policy is easing in many markets, indications of funding stress highlight a potential vulnerability in the international trade ecosystem.

Trade outlook – Global ambitions endure

Despite headwinds, businesses continue to see international trade as an essential part of their strategy and are actively pursuing new market opportunities.

Globally, 88% of respondents are confident in their ability to grow international trade over the next two years. Larger businesses with revenues over USD2 billion are relatively more bullish, with 46% saying they are very confident about international trade growth versus 38% of those with revenues below USD500 million.

The survey points to deepening interest in emerging trade corridors and regional resilience. One third (34%) of all businesses have already expanded into regions less affected by trade disruption and a further 50% are planning to do so. A clear geographic reorientation is under way. Europe (40%) and Southeast Asia (36%) rank as the top regions where businesses are looking to increase their reliance, ahead of North America (32%). At the same time, more than one in five (22%) plan to reduce their reliance on North America as part of their trade strategy, well ahead of all other regions.

North American businesses continue to see international trade as a priority, with 92% expressing confidence that they will grow international trade in the next two years.

Europe is a clear priority for North American businesses (50%). Three quarters (75%) of international businesses believe trade uncertainty has  ncouraged them to evolve and explore new opportunities, while 73% of global businesses believe trade policy changes are forcing them to rethink their long-term business model.

Conclusion

The second HSBC Global Trade Pulse survey finds that international businesses are actively responding to a changing environment and continue to see growth opportunities in international trade. Much has changed in the six months since our first survey. Businesses now have more clarity over tariffs and trade policy than they did in April, and fears of severe disruption to revenues appear to have eased. Alongside these signs of stabilisation, working capital needs have increased, and companies have deployed a broad range of steps to build resilience, protect margins and diversify revenue streams.

At the same time, many of the themes from the earlier survey remain intact. Cost pressures have not gone away, and many businesses continue to defer investment decisions as they wait for the new landscape to become clear. Yet appetite for international trade remains high, and businesses are firmly focused on growth.

In the face of continued uncertainty, the latest HSBC Global Trade Pulse survey underlines the importance of adaptability for businesses looking to thrive in a changing world. It also offers practical insights into the strategic, operational and financial levers that international businesses are deploying to manage trade risks and capture growth opportunities.

Methodology

The HSBC Global Trade Pulse survey is based on the insights of 6,750 decision-makers at businesses with international operations. Responses were collected from 6-21 October 2025 across 17 markets: Bangladesh, Brazil, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Italy, mainland China, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, Spain, UAE, UK, USA and Vietnam.

The sample comprised 250 responses in each market, with the exception of Hong Kong (500), mainland China, UK, and USA (1,000 each). Of the 6,750 corporate respondents, 683 reported global turnover of over USD2 billion in the past 12 months, 2,448 turned over between USD500 million and USD2 billion, and 3,619 had turnover of USD50 million to USD500 million.

 

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