Vulcan Consulting | Vulcan View: The latest EU developments 20 January – 24 January

Donald Tusk revealed Polish Presidency priorities with focus on defence

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed MEPs in Strasbourg on Wednesday (22 January), presenting Poland’s agenda for its six-month presidency of the EU Council. Under the slogan of ‘Security, Europe!’, Tusk outlined defence as the paramount theme in the EU for the next six months, given an increasingly volatile global landscape, while also touching on migration, energy, and economic resilience.

Defence
Mr. Tusk highlighted the unprecedented challenges facing the EU, urging a radical overhaul of its defence strategy in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine and political uncertainties in the United States. He stressed the need for a substantial boost in military spending, proposing an increase to 5% of GDP, declaring: “If Europe is to survive, it needs to be armed. It is not our choice.” The Polish Prime Minister also called for a rethink of the EU’s relationship with the United States, stating: “Don’t ask America what it can do for our security. Ask yourselves what we can do for our own security.” This call for greater self-reliance reflects Mr. Tusk’s vision of a stronger, more autonomous Europe.

Migration
One of the most contentious topics in Tusk’s speech was migration. He stressed the importance of minimising the threat of irregular migration while ensuring Europe’s borders remain secure. He claimed that it could be achieved without resorting to “nationalist or xenophobic slogans,” advocating for a balanced and responsible approach.

Competitiveness and the Green Deal
The Polish Prime Minister underscored the need for the EU to strike a balance between environmental protection and economic competitiveness. He argued that while safeguarding the climate remains a priority, the EU must ensure its policies do not undermine its global competitiveness. Stressing the importance of affordable energy for citizens, Mr. Tusk called for a review of legislation under the Green Deal to align climate goals with economic realities: “We need to protect the environment, we need to protect our climate, but […] we cannot afford not to be competitive,” he stated. Thus, he advocated for a pragmatic approach to balancing energy independence, economic competitiveness, and sustainable growth.

Finally, Mr. Tusk expressed his firm belief that the EU can resolve its economic and political challenges independently, without reliance on external actors. He underscored this conviction with a resolute statement: “The future is in our hands, not in the hands of the Chinese or the American people,” he concluded.

Reactions from MEPs and the European Commission
MEPs broadly welcomed Tusk’s defence priorities, supporting increased military spending, NATO cooperation, and reduced Russian energy dependence. Commissioner for the Mediterranean Dubravka Šuica, on behalf of the European Commission, announced that the European executive will propose a white paper on the future of European defence.

However, divisions emerged over other priorities. MEPs from the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) criticised Tusk’s migration policy, accusing him of prioritising border security over solidarity and human rights. Similarly, Tusk’s call for a critical review of Green Deal policies faced backlash from The Left and Greens groups, who argued that renewable energy remains key to achieving energy independence from other countries. In addition, conservative and nationalist MEPs were sceptical of Tusk’s domestic record, accusing his government of undermining democratic values back home.

Conclusion
Despite these criticisms, Tusk’s firm stance on defence appears to have united many MEPs around a shared goal of bolstering Europe’s security and autonomy in an increasingly uncertain world. As the EU navigates an era of uncertainty, Tusk’s call for unity and pragmatic action underscores the need for collective responsibility and strategic foresight. Whether the Polish presidency achieves its goals will depend on the ability of member states and European institutions to reconcile their differences and work together.

New Irish Government unveiled: major ministerial changes announced

Following unprecedented disruption to parliamentary proceedings in Dáil Éireann yesterday (23 January), Mícheál Martin was nominated as Taoiseach (Prime Minister) by the 34th Dáil and subsequently appointed by the President of Ireland. He will lead a majority coalition comprised of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and members of the Regional Independent Group. Martin was formerly Taoiseach between July 2020 and December 2022 – and he will remain in office from today until November 2027.

Simon Harris has been appointed Tánaiste and Minuster for Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade. He will replace Martin as Taoiseach in November 2027 as part of the rotation agreement between the two main parties within the Programme for Government. Harris has already outlined a proposed diplomatic offensive (including enhanced IDA funding) in response to the touted policies of President Trump.

All government Departments will be led by either a Fianna Fáil or a Fine Gael Minister. This is a change from the last government when the minority coalition partner (the Green Party) oversaw three Departments. This has resulted in the elevation of several new faces to the Cabinet table for both of the main government parties this afternoon.

New Appointees
On the Fianna Fáil side:

Dara Calleary has been elevated to serve as Minister for Social Protection and Rural & Community Development and the Gaeltacht. A former Deputy Leader of Fianna Fáil, Calleary was sacked from Cabinet by Martin after less than two weeks in office following his controversial attendance at Golfgate in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. His return to Cabinet will be seen as long overdue.

While the elevation of James Browne was not a surprise, the allocation of the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage to him will certainly be seen as unexpected given the general perception that Darragh O’Brien was starting to deliver some progress. The new Minister comes in under a cloud, however, with the CSO showing that the government missed their 2024 target of 39,000 homes by almost 10,000 units.

Jim O’Callaghan has been elevated to the Department of Justice, Home Affairs and Migration. A long-standing critic of Mícheál Martin, his promotion straight to Cabinet (having rejected the offer of a junior ministry in the last government) is likely to frustrate several outgoing Fianna Fáil junior ministers.

James Lawless, a relatively recent junior ministry appointment, has been elevated to lead the Department of Further & Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science.

The final ‘new’ Fianna Fáil face at Cabinet is Mary Butler, who will serve as Government Chief Whip with the added responsibility of Mental Health.

Meanwhile, on the Fine Gael side, two new Cabinet appointees have been made.

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill has been elevated to lead the Department of Health, while her party colleague, Martin Heydon has been elevated to lead the Department of Agriculture, Food, Fisheries and the Marine.

Returning/Reshuffled Ministers
As expected, Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers have swapped their current portfolios to become the new Finance Minister and Public Expenditure brief. Chambers’ role in particular will be central to the delivery of the new government’s ambitious agenda of delivering on critical infrastructure projects. Digitalisation and infrastructure will be included in his portfolio. Donohoe, meanwhile, will continue the government’s efforts of future-proofing the state’s finances against fluctuations in corporate tax receipts.

Peter Burke has pulled off a masterstroke in retaining his position as Minister for Enterprise and Employment, which takes on the additional portfolio of Tourism. Given the large focus on competitiveness and innovation within the Programme for Government, industry will be hugely keen for him to pursue issues of strategic priority, such as improving Ireland’s grid infrastructure. Despite placing significant emphasis on SMEs, and particularly the hospitality sector, since assuming the enterprise ministry in April 2024, he has recently become more vocal on issues affecting Ireland’s general competitiveness. Whether Burke is able and willing to intervene politically and drive the policy agenda from the Department of Enterprise will likely determine the extent of the government’s success in achieving its ambitious commitments set out in the Programme for Government, such as developing a new competitiveness strategy within the next 12 months.

In one of the most unexpected developments in the Cabinet appointments, Darragh O’Brien has been moved from the housing portfolio to become the Minister with responsibility for the Environment, Energy and Transport. O’Brien will be able to bring his considerable experience to the role – particularly on foot of his extensive involvement in planning and infrastructure from his previous portfolio.

Deputy Leader of Fine Gael, Helen McEntee has been appointed Minister for Education & Youth, replacing Norma Foley who has been appointed Minister for Children & Disability. Patrick O’Donovan has been appointed Minister for Arts, Culture, Communications, Media and Sport.

Rossa Fanning has been reappointed as the Attorney General of Ireland – a clear indication of the level of trust that Martin has in the outgoing government’s legal adviser.

Stakeholders criticise the Commission’s AI Act timelines

The Commission’s flagship AI Act – hailed as ‘the world’s first comprehensive AI law’ – entered into force on 1 August 2024. It will be fully applicable two years later, with some exceptions: prohibitions take effect after six months and the rules and obligations for general-purpose AI (GPAI) providers will come into effect after a year. Despite these looming deadlines, many crucial details of the AI Act remain unspecified, and stakeholders are concerned that the drafting process is too rushed, preventing meaningful engagement.

The first draft of the Code of Practice for GPAI providers was published on 14 November and the second draft on 19 December. The third draft is expected on 17 February 2025, with a final version due in April. Each draft reflects the views of those participating in the Code of Practice Working Groups and Provider Workshops, consisting of around 1000 stakeholders.

In an open letter, the digital rights groups Access Now and European Digital Rights (EDRi) argue that these short timeframes do not “enable more targeted and useful feedback.” For instance, upon the issuance of the first draft, stakeholders were given just 10 days to go through it. Hundreds of written responses were handled in only two weeks.

Adding to the Commission’s challenge, the new AI Office is “massively understaffed,” according to MEP Axel Voss, shadow rapporteur for the AI Act. It currently has only 85 staffers. Finding enough expertise to regulate the highly technical aspects of AI training and testing practices presents another obstacle.

Industry representatives are among the most vocal critics of the AI Act drafting process. The Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA), representing the interests of leading tech companies, raises similar concerns with too little time. “The shortcomings of the AI Act, particularly the overly tight timeline for applying its rules, are already becoming evident,” says Boniface de Champris, the CCIA’s Senior Policy Manager.

In addition to the GPAI Code of Practice, the AI Act will also prohibit certain high-risk AI practices, including social scoring and the creation of facial recognition databases from photos scraped from the internet. The prohibitions are due to come into force on 2 Feb. But – less than two weeks from that date – the European Commission has yet to publish details on what the AI prohibitions will look like.

Many AI developers worry about their ability to comply with the regulation on such short notice. “With the AI Act set to take effect in two weeks, business remain uncertain about critical issues,” the tech lobby group DigitalEurope told POLITICO.

If stakeholders are not consulted in a timely manner, the legitimacy and success of the world’s first comprehensive AI law is at risk. More broadly, the EU AI Act offers a litmus test for the new Commission’s ability to provide clear, responsible, and innovation-friendly regulation. It is certainly off to a rocky start.

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