Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges”, Stanford University Standard theory of monetary policy rests on a simple premise: a stable relationship between inflation and the output gap. This is the logic behind the Phillips curve, which, in its most common form, relates inflation to a measure of economic slack, expected inflation and supply shocks. The relationship between output and inflation was already under scrutiny...

New OECD data shows export restrictions for critical raw materials are becoming increasingly widespread as demand surges, driven by the green and digital transitions and rising concerns over economic security. The OECD Inventory of Export Restrictions on Industrial Raw Materials offers key insights for policymakers and stakeholders to help identify less restrictive ways to meet both the security of supply needs of importing countries and the development goals of resource-rich nations. It provides annually updated data on the scope, type, and evolution...

Executive Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy, Stéphane Séjourné, is opening today the second edition of the InvestEU High-Level Event in Brussels. The event provides an outlook on the contribution of InvestEU to Europe's competitiveness, the flexibility offered by the instrument in de-risking and attracting private investments, as well as the role that InvestEU can play in the future MFF and the European Competitiveness Fund. The programme highlights InvestEU's growing impact across key areas such as innovation, decarbonisation and the social sector. It...

The European Commission has launched a public consultation on a list of US imports which could become subject to EU countermeasures, if ongoing EU-US negotiations do not result in a mutually beneficial outcome and the removal of the US tariffs. The list put to consultation concerns imports from the US worth €95 billion, covering a broad range of industrial and agricultural products. The Commission is also consulting on possible restrictions on certain EU exports of steel scrap and chemical products to the US worth €4.4 billion....

NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the April 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations were unchanged over the short term, increased over the medium term, and decreased over the longer term. Labor market expectations largely deteriorated in April, with households having lower expectations for both earnings growth and finding a job. Households also expect lower income growth over the next year, and their perceptions about both their current...

By Oscar Arce, Agostino Consolo, António Dias da Silva and Marco Weissler | Foreign workers play an increasingly important role in the euro area labour markets. This ECB blog analyses the effects migrants had on growth across the largest countries in recent years. It also discusses changing labour market participation patterns among foreign workers. Sluggish productivity growth and weak capital accumulation have hampered post-pandemic recovery in the euro area. Amid this weakness, population growth and increasing labour force participation stabilised the...

The European Central Bank (ECB) welcomes the European Commission’s targeted consultation on the application of the market risk prudential framework. Market risk is a significant risk for banks and was one of the main causes of the global financial crisis. Geopolitical risks, including trade tensions and ongoing military conflicts are having an impact on financial markets. We know from experience that adverse developments in financial markets can materialise very suddenly and with a highly amplified impact, for example through...