Transatlantic Trade Monitor: Facts You Need Now | The Big, BeaEUtiful Trade Deal

By Ian Hunter, Director, OCO Global

US–EU tariff pact rewrites the map for energy, autos and chips.

On July 27, 2025, President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stepped out from closed-door talks in Scotland with a tentative handshake and a headline-grabbing accord. Trump declared it “a great deal for American energy, American jobs, and American strength.” Von der Leyen called it “a compromise to protect European competitiveness.”

The compromise? A 15% U.S. baseline tariff covering about 70% of EU goods, designed to replace the looming threat of a 30% blanket tariff.

Whilst the deal averts a 30% shock, it will codify higher, more complex transatlantic costs.  Notably, it keeps steel and aluminium at 50%, and carves out zero‑tariff lanes for aircraft parts, semiconductor equipment, certain chemicals, generics and critical raw materials. In return, Brussels pledges to buy $750 billion in U.S. energy and invest $600 billion stateside by 2028. Big numbers that underscore the deal’s scale but remain contingent on implementation.

The pact goes live on August 1, 2025, but its finer details await drafting “over the next weeks to months”, and we can expect continued fallout from this deal as the European Member States and national governments start to chime in.

Dealing with the Deal

Given the sheer size and scope of the deal, politically, leaders are framing the bargain very differently. Trump called it “the biggest deal ever made.” Von der Leyen defended 15% as “the best we could get” under threat of steeper duties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the de‑escalation for an export‑heavy economy, while France’s PM François Bayrou condemned a “dark day,” and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán derided Brussels’ performance. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič argued the pact “saves jobs” and reflects wider security and Ukraine considerations. This mix of relief and resistance will shape how the texts are finalized.

While President Trump described the deal as a “massive win for American workers and our energy dominance”,  Von der Leyen framed it as “the best we could get”, arguing that it brings much-needed stability to a fragile transatlantic relationship.

This blend of criticism and cautious acceptance reflects real fault lines: Germany and the Netherlands, reliant on industrial and automotive exports, stand to salvage stakes; meanwhile, France, Ireland, and countries dependent on wine, spirits, and agricultural goods face greater exposure.

Despite being negotiated by the European Commission, the deal must still be presented to both the European Parliament and all 27 EU member states – a process likely to involve months of review, debate, and potential amendments, especially from nations whose export sectors remain at risk.  Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, voiced concerns about the deal’s imbalance, highlighting that promised EU investments may come at the cost of domestic industry competitiveness.

From Whiskey to Wafers – which sectors and states benefit from the deal:

• Energy:  Clear U.S. winner. The EU’s binding offtake for LNG, oil, and nuclear fuel locks in demand, while giving a boost to midstream infrastructure from Texas to Pennsylvania. This move also realigns transatlantic energy dependencies in light of the war in Ukraine.
• Autos: OEMs avoid disaster, but the 15% baseline still hurts. Expect a surge in U.S. localization from EU brands, especially in South Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, and Alabama. The EU will lower its auto tariff to 2.5% for U.S. imports – a strategic concession.
• Semiconductors: Finished chips are hit, but semiconductor equipment and materials are zero-rated. This rewards EU firms co-locating with new U.S. fabs in Arizona, Texas, New York, and Maine.
• Pharma/Medtech: A 15% cap with carve-outs for generics. U.S. expansions in fill-finish and sterile manufacturing are now likely in Massachusetts, Missouri, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
• Aerospace/Defense: Aerospace escapes tariffs altogether – pair that with EU commitments to buy more U.S. defense equipment and the sector enters a co-production boom. States like Georgia, Alabama, and Wisconsin are ideally placed.
• Steel & Aluminium: The 50% tariff holds. A quota-based compromise may come later, but EU mills are under pressure, while U.S. mini-mills and finishing operations in Ohio and the Midwest stand to gain.
• Chemicals: Partial zeroing offers targeted relief. Look for activity in New Jersey, Texas, and Louisiana, where U.S. industrial chemistry strength meets EU strategic shifts.
• Spirits, Wine & Agriculture: Still in limbo. EU exporters of Irish whiskey, French wine, and Spanish sherry are still exposed. The absence of SPS harmonization makes U.S. co-packing, blending, or bottling an attractive workaround.

Navigating a 15% world

This is a structural reset, not a truce. The 15% world rewards organizations that (i) move fast to localize last‑mile value‑add, (ii) engineer products into zero‑tariff lanes, (iii) master rules of origin, and (iv) pick U.S. landing zones where ports, energy capacity, workforce, and permitting align.

The deal lowers the temperature but locks in a higher baseline. The Turnberry accord – named after President Trump’s Scottish golf course – may have prevented a tariff war, but it signals the start of a new, more complex transatlantic trading era, one defined not by crisis, but by friction as the new normal. With a 15% tariff baseline on most EU exports, sector-specific exemptions, and unresolved chapters still to come, this deal rewires cost structures, supply chains, and competitive positioning across both sides of the Atlantic.

For economic developers, site selectors, and globally ambitious firms, the message is clear: move early, move precisely.

• Localize final-step production in the U.S.
• Target zero-tariff lanes with surgical accuracy.
• Align with rules-of-origin requirements.
• Pick locations that can support cost-effective, resilient operations.

The winners in the 15% world will be those who don’t wait for perfect clarity, but build strategically around the policy, sector, and location signals already emerging.

At OCO Global, we’re already working with U.S. regions, European exporters, and multinational investors to turn uncertainty into opportunity. Whether you need a tariff exposure map, a state-by-state landing zone shortlist, or in-market partner searches, we’re ready to help.

Compliments of OCO Global – a member of the EACCNY