Jaguar Freight | The Weekly Roar – Understanding “transshipment”, a tariff refund and a date with the Supreme Court, U.S. container imports in decline, and the rise of cargo theft.

The Trump administration’s new 40% tariff on transshipped goods is causing more trade confusion. And it appears Vietnam is at the epicenter, due to the high amount of Chinese products rerouted through the Southeast Asian country. Since there’s no clear definition of the new regulation, Vietnam’s export growth could wind up as collateral damage. Central to the issue is that many Vietnamese exports rely on Chinese inputs, so it’s hard to distinguish between legitimate goods and transshipments. Rushing enforcement with no real rules in place means U.S. companies could face steep costs and, ironically, the policy may end up benefiting China.

Now that two lower courts have ruled that many of President Trump’s emergency tariffs are illegal, it’s in the Supreme Court’s hands. If the Court agrees, the U.S. government could be required to refund importers between $750 billion and $1 trillion. For now, the Treasury Secretary is warning that unwinding the tariffs could cause major problems, and the Trump administration is urging a fast decision. Trade experts are advising importers to get ready for a potentially complex and chaotic refund process. Stranger yet, a secondary market is emerging in which companies can sell potential refund claims, sometimes for pennies on the dollar, as a hedge against whatever ruling(s) happen in the future.

Perhaps not surprisingly, given the stakes, the White House is getting what it wants. The Supreme Court has agreed to move swiftly and decide whether President Trump’s global IEEPA tariffs, which he imposed under what he declared an emergency, are legal. Even though the lower courts have ruled that he overstepped his authority, the tariffs remain in effect. The case has been fast-tracked, and arguments are set for November and could impact trillions in customs duties, creating challenges for small businesses and states. Depending on how the Supreme Court rules, it could mean significant economic and legal consequences for U.S. and global markets.

U.S. container imports are expected to decline for the rest of 2025 after retailers rushed shipments in early summer to beat steep tariffs, according to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker report. July imports surged 20% from June, but the forecasts are showing steady drops through December, with year-over-year declines getting worse each month. In the understatement of the year, uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, new sectoral tariffs, and ongoing legal battles are complicating supply chain planning and will likely result in higher consumer prices, NRF officials warned.

Cargo theft is out of control across North America, with the U.S., Mexico, and Canada all reporting increases driven by organized crime networks. The U.S. had 3,798 cargo thefts in 2024, which was up 26% from the previous year, with identity theft and shipment manipulation now making up for a third of the cases. In Mexico, 82% of thefts in Q2 2025 were violent and especially targeted food, beverages, and industrial goods along their key transport routes. Air freight is also being increasingly targeted, including a C$20 million gold heist at Toronto Pearson Airport. In response, companies are implementing advanced tech, more secure routing, and new regulations.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights here.

Compliments of Jaguar Freight – a member of the EACCNY.