Jaguar Freight | The Weekly Roar: Risky Business in 2026

In this week’s Roar: Trans-Pacific Ocean rates are up, the challenges of moving inventory closer to customers, low U.S. manufacturing activity, the new EU Emissions Trading System rules, and building a data-driven supply chain.

Trans-Pacific Ocean rates are trending up ahead of the Lunar New Year. The causes included shippers speeding up shipments ahead of the holiday and geopolitics still weighing on the global supply chain. For now, despite some improvements, Red Sea diversions remain an issue, forcing longer and costlier routes. Lingering uncertainty and this year’s early holidays have shippers extending lead times to avoid disruptions. Some experts predict, however, that demand will soften later in 2026.

Retailers are moving inventory closer to customers to manage the impact of tariffs, speed up delivery, and control rising costs. But there are some hurdles. Splitting stock across more warehouses can introduce tougher customs rules, greater compliance risk, and major challenges in keeping inventory balanced. A mistake in planning or visibility could wipe out the expected benefits. As regulations and customer demands shift, the key is treating localization as a network-wide strategy built on data, transparency, and strong coordination.

U.S. manufacturing activity fell to its lowest point of 2025 in December as demand softened and tariffs continued to disrupt export orders. Many companies are holding back on hiring or reducing staff in response to uncertainty over trade policy and global events, such as the recent military action in Venezuela. While a few sectors, such as computer and electronics, are showing some resilience, most remain in contraction. Low inventories and orders mean the outlook for early 2026 is cautious.

From January 2026, shipping companies will be required to pay 100% of their carbon compliance costs under new EU Emissions Trading System rules. The phased-in approach is over. This puts full financial responsibility for emissions on vessel operators, driving up compliance costs and creating a wave of regulatory planning across the sector. Now that the scope of regulation has expanded to include more greenhouse gases, maritime businesses are facing even greater pressure to adapt and reduce emissions.

Building a data-driven supply chain means moving beyond traditional forecasting to use real-time analytics, integrated technology, and a culture that prioritizes data at every level. By continuously collecting and connecting data from across the supply chain, companies can spot issues early, adapt to disruptions, and uncover new opportunities. Success won’t depend solely on technology. It will mean aligning teams, focusing on the right metrics, and making sure everyone understands and trusts the new decision-making process.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article here.