Jaguar Freight | The Weekly Roar: Reimbursement Day

In this week’s Roar: Tariff refunds are beginning, global fuel is climbing, China and the Panama Canal, the seafarers stranded in the Middle East, and a surge in global air cargo demand.

As a quick trade update, note that announcements were made last week impacting some metals and pharmaceutical tariffs. Click to read the Metals Fact Sheet and the Executive Order pertaining to Pharmaceuticals.

It’s no longer a matter of if… only when. Finally, the CBP says it will begin refunding tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Entries are eligible once fully processed, with an estimated payment of up to 45 days for claims. According to a new filing, the new system is 85% complete for returning the duties, but only once they’re liquidated, with refunds to be issued digitally for most registered importers.

The fallout from the Iran conflict continues. The ongoing war is pushing global fuel prices higher, with U.S. gas and diesel rates reaching multi-year highs and trucking costs skyrocketing. As energy costs spike, industrial growth forecasts are getting downgraded worldwide, and shipping and logistics are introducing new surcharges. Extended air and ocean routes are adding costs and delays and raising the threat of a severe upheaval in the supply chain if the conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz persist. For its part, President Trump stated last week that the U.S. will continue military operations in the region for “2 or 3 more weeks”, but gave no indication of what actions may follow.

Lost in the news has been the tension between China and Panama, having to do with the Panama Canal. The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission is monitoring China’s detention of the Panama-flagged ships they’re detaining in retaliation for Panama’s seizure of Hong Kong-owned terminals. China’s actions threaten to disrupt global shipping and could have long-term consequences for U.S. containerized trade and supply chain reliability.

Another less obvious impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis is that it has stranded about 20,000 seafarers in high-risk conditions, and the International Chamber of Shipping and International Transport Workers’ Federation are urging Gulf states to take action. They’re requesting the establishment of resupply mechanisms, enabling medical evacuations, and accelerating crew changes. Talks place an emphasis on protecting the rights of seafarers and restoring safe passage.

Global air cargo demand surged 11.2% year-on-year in February 2026, according to IATA, jumping ahead of an 8.5% rise in capacity. Africa is in the lead with 21% growth, while the Middle East saw demand jump to 16.5%. Looking at trade lanes, the Africa-Asia route grew by 61.9%. However, the IATA is warning that further gains may be threatened by skyrocketing fuel costs and supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights here.