Global economic prospects are weakening, with substantial barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, diminishing confidence and heightened policy uncertainty projected to have adverse impacts on growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. The Outlook projects global growth slowing from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. The slowdown is expected to be most concentrated in the United States, Canada, Mexico and China, with smaller downward adjustments in other economies. GDP growth in the United States is projected to...

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The European Union must unite to shape today’s global economy, rather than be shaped by it By Gita Bhatt, Head of Policy Communications, IMF Not many places match the European Union for quality of life. Its workers enjoy more time off than in many other regions, yet their living standards are among the highest. Its core values of solidarity are exemplified in social contracts that ensure the state will care for those who need it. Yet lately the EU has lost confidence in...

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Recent disruptions, transport network bottlenecks and rising concerns about economic security all point to the need to strengthen and diversify supply chains. However, simply re-localising all production within national borders would harm growth and undermine, rather than strengthen, supply chain resilience, according to a new OECD report. The OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review emphasises the importance of agile and effective risk management and offers evidence-based insights to strengthen supply chain resilience in the face of multiple complex global challenges, to help firms...

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By Pedro Baptista, Maarten Dossche, Andrew Hannon, Dorian Henricot, Omiros Kouvavas, Davide Malacrino and Larissa Zimmermann Despite recent ECB rate cuts, the average interest rate on mortgages is expected to increase further. This is because of lagged effects from the latest hiking cycle. The ECB blog shows that the resulting drag on consumption could last at least until 2030. Mortgage contracts often have interest rates fixed for long periods, or even for the entire duration of the contract. This implies that...

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Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at an event on Europe’s role in a fragmented world organised by Jacques Delors Centre at Hertie School in Berlin, Germany Over the past 80 years, the global economy thrived on a foundation of openness and multilateralism – underpinned by US leadership. By championing a rules-based international system and anchoring the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, the United States set the stage for trade to flourish and finance to expand. This global...

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Commissioner Ekaterina Zaharieva Ladies and Gentlemen, Today, the College has taken an important step to make Europe the best place for innovation. The best place to start, to scale, to stay. President von der Leyen made it clear when she presented the new College: Startups and scaleups are a top priority of this Commission. We are delivering on that promise. Our innovators don't just build companies. They create jobs. They turn ideas into solutions that improve and save lives. The good news is that we are not starting...

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Fiscal Policy under mounting uncertainty means government budgets need resilience—particularly in countries whose economic weight makes them influence global trends Blog post by Era Dabla-Norris, Davide Furceri | Global public debt could increase to 100 percent of global gross domestic product by the end of the decade if current trends continue, according to projections in our latest Fiscal Monitor. The rising ratio of public debt to GDP reflects renewed economic pressures as well as the consequences of pandemic-related fiscal support, according to...

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The European Commission welcomes today's agreement in the Council of the EU on the Security for Action for Europe (SAFE) Instrument. As proposed in the ReArm Europe Plan / Readiness 2030, the Commission will raise up to €150 billion on the capital markets, providing financial levers to EU Member States to ramp up the investments in key defence areas like air missile defence, drones, or strategic enablers. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission said: “Exceptional times require exceptional measures. I welcome today's...

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The Council adopted today its negotiating position (general approach) on one of the proposals of the so-called ‘Omnibus I’ legislative package, which simplifies and strengthens the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The proposal seeks to provide simplification and cost-efficient compliance improvements to the CBAM regulation, without compromising its climate goals, as about 99% of embedded emissions in the imported CBAM goods would remain covered. The overall aim is to reduce the regulatory and administrative burden, as well as compliance...

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