Prepared by Claus Brand, Noëmie Lisack and Falk Mazelis Estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r*, show trends that are of fundamental significance for monetary policy, but are subject to important caveats. r* is defined as the real rate of interest that is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Measures of r* are typically constructed as an equilibrium value towards which interest rates tend to gravitate in the medium to long term, as aggregate saving and investment imbalances abate and the...

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The gap between development financing needs and available resources could swell to USD 6.4 trillion by 2030 without a major overhaul of the financing system, according to a new OECD report. The Global Outlook on Financing Sustainable Development 2025: Towards a more resilient and inclusive architecture shows that although total external finance to developing countries reached USD 5.24 trillion in 2022, it remained significantly below the USD 9.24 trillion estimated to be required annually to achieve the 2030 Agenda. Financing needs have risen...

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The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday released the hypothetical scenarios for its annual stress test, which helps ensure that large banks can lend to households and businesses even in a severe recession. Additionally, the Board released two hypothetical elements designed to probe different risks through its "exploratory analysis" of the banking system. The exploratory analysis will not affect bank capital requirements. The Board's annual stress test evaluates the resilience of large banks by estimating losses, net revenue, and capital levels—which...

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Blog post by By Stefan Gebauer, Georgios Georgiadis, Fédéric Holm-Hadulla and Thomas Kostka | The monetary policies of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve are not always in sync. But how does the Fed’s policy affect the euro area economy? This ECB Blog looks at how monetary policy in the United States travels across the Atlantic and what this means for the ECB. The global economy is interconnected. Central banks’ monetary policies therefore often affect other economies. These “monetary policy spillovers”...

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Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission | Remaining competitive is fundamental for Europe’s future. We need faster economic growth and higher productivity to protect the quality of life for Europeans – from their jobs and incomes to their security and welfare. Europe must act. Our competitiveness is at risk. While a global revolution in artificial intelligence unfolds, the EU could find itself on the sidelines....

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As of Sunday, 2 February, the first rules under the Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act) started to apply. This includes the AI system definition, AI literacy, as well as a very limited number of prohibited AI use cases outlined in the AI Act that pose unacceptable risks in the EU. To facilitate innovation in AI, the Commission will publish guidelines on AI system definition. This aims to assist the industry in determining whether a software system constitutes an AI system. The Commission will...

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A new framework to rekindle economic productivity and secure the EU’s competitive edge has been presented by the European Commission. The Competitiveness Compass builds on the recommendations set out in Mario Draghi’s report on the future of European competitiveness. It will steer the EU’s work on competitiveness over the next five years and translate the report’s recommendations into concrete actions for the EU’s future prosperity.   The EU enjoys a strong system of rights and values, a Single Market, top-notch infrastructure and...

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Today, the Commission presents the Competitiveness Compass, the first major initiative of this mandate providing a strategic and clear framework to steer the Commission's work. The Compass sets a path for Europe to become the place where future technologies, services, and clean products are invented, manufactured, and put on the market, while being the first continent to become climate neutral. Over the last two decades, Europe has not kept pace with other major economies due to a persistent gap in productivity...

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Good afternoon, the Vice-President and I welcome you to our press conference. The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which we steer the monetary policy stance – is based on our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The disinflation process is well on track. Inflation...

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A Balanced Partnership HR/VP Kallas discussed EU-U.S. cooperation on global issues with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The EU-U.S. trade balance is well balanced, both sides have complementary strengths. 800 Million Citizens Our partnership is the world's most extensive bilateral trade and investment relationship and our economies are integrated. Read the EU Ambassador Neliupšienė's remarks to the press. World Economic Forum "European companies in the U.S. employ 3.5 million Americans. And another million American jobs depend directly on trade with Europe. Entire supply...

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