25
Aug
Key Takeaways
• Citi Research expects global growth to slow to below 2% in the second half of the year before rebounding to nearly 3% in the first half of 2026. Upside and downside risks to this forecast are roughly balanced.
• President Trump continues to aggressively implement tariffs. We judge that the effective tariff rate is likely to remain above 15%, the highest level in decades.
• The cost of tariffs is being borne by three groups: foreign exporters, importing U.S....