NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the March 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short-term horizon, remained unchanged at the medium-term horizon, and ticked down at the longer-term horizon. Unemployment, job loss, and earnings growth expectations deteriorated. Household income growth expectations declined. Households were also more pessimistic about their year-ahead financial situations and credit access. Stock price expectations declined and reached the lowest level...

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Firms reported declining interest rates on bank loans, while indicating a slight further tightening of other lending conditions. The bank loan financing gap remained almost unchanged, with firms reporting a reduced need for such loans alongside a slight decrease in availability. Firms’ one-year-ahead median inflation expectations decreased slightly to 2.9%, down from 3%, while median inflation expectations three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 3.0%. In the most recent round of the Survey on the Access to Finance...

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Blog post by: Salih Fendoglu, Mahvash S. Qureshi, Felix Suntheim | Heightened tensions can hurt stock markets, raise government borrowing costs, and pose risks to financial stability Global geopolitical risks remain elevated, raising concerns about their potential impact on economic and financial stability. Shocks such as wars, diplomatic tensions, or terrorism can disrupt cross-border trade and investment. This can hurt asset prices, affect financial institutions, and curtail lending to the private sector, weighing on economic activity and posing a threat to financial stability. Such risks...

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