By Nick Watson, Director, OCO Global The tariffs announced two weeks ago by President Trump kicked in last week and survived contact with reality in their original form for about twelve hours. Had they persisted – and of course they could yet be revived – the impact of this trade-weighted 21% tax on all US imports would have been profound, and profoundly negative, for both the US and the world economy. The markets breathed a huge sigh of relief, following the...

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By Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets If trade imbalances truly drive protectionist backlash, as many claim, we should have witnessed comparable anti-trade sentiment during the 1980s when America's deficit with Japan reached historic proportions. Yet history reveals a critical distinction: Japan was offered—and wisely seized—an economic escape valve that today's geopolitical climate threatens to deny China. This asymmetry not only betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how global trade evolved but risks triggering an unprecedented economic disruption. Japan's solution...

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By Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM Key takeaways The U.S. attempt to rebalance the global economy has resulted in the flight of capital out of the country. The primary consequence of this effort has been a declining dollar and rising Treasury yields. Any policy that devalues the dollar or seeks to end its status as the reserve currency harms American interests. The United States’ attempt to rebalance the global economy to better serve its interests has resulted in the flight of...

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By William R. Rhodes and Stuart P.M. Mackintosh It is delusional to think that the Trump administration will devise a viable, let alone sensible, trade policy before its 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs ends. Before prices spike and the economy starts shrinking, legislators and business leaders must recognize that there is no strategy and respond accordingly. WASHINGTON, DC – In November 2024, the consensus among economists was clear. The United States was powering ahead of all other advanced economies, a trend reflected in...

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By Thomas Taylor and David Wegman, Trepp On April 2, 2025, President Trump launched the opening moves in what has become the most encompassing trade war seen in the modern era. Since then, securities markets have reacted to breaking news on this topic with extreme swings. Taken individually or collectively, how will the economic shocks from the developing trade war impact commercial real estate (CRE) and market participants? Market Shocks & CRE One of the most immediate effects of policy uncertainty on capital...

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U.S. container imports from China have dropped sharply due to steep tariffs, especially the 145% China-specific rate. Ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach, which heavily rely on Chinese goods, face major volume losses. China’s share in imports such as electronics, plastics, toys, and furniture is high, and no other sourcing countries can match the lost volume. Analysts are warning the decline will hurt local jobs and port economies. Despite signals that large retailers may resume some sourcing from China, policy...

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By Rachel Szymanski, Chief Economist, Trepp Significant back-and-forth on tariffs has led to unprecedented trade policy uncertainty and large swings in asset prices. While there is now a 90-day pause on some tariffs, others remain in place. This reprieve offers some relief, but the uncertainty itself has substantial effects on behavior, where market participants may delay economic decisions and take risk mitigation measures. This blog outlines the ripple effects of uncertainty throughout the economy and the implications for commercial real estate...

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