By Fabio Balboni, Senior Economist, Eurozone, and Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist, HSBC The word “uncertainty” does not do justice to the current global economic outlook. We knew 2025 was going to be an unpredictable year, but the pace of US policy shifts since the ‘Liberation Day’ announcements has been dramatic. The reciprocal tariff unveiling, associated financial market turmoil, the US administration’s rapid U-turn, and a doubling down on mainland China tariffs have already impacted perceptions and expectations in ways...

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By John Czapla, Chairman of the Board, Valuation Research Corporation An unpredictable and rapidly unfolding event has disrupted the global financial markets, coinciding with the end of the first quarter valuation processes for private debt funds. Private credit market valuation professionals are grappling with the fallout from the ongoing trade war may feel a sense of déjà vu, as they’ve navigated similar challenges in the very recent past. The playbook for assessing fair value for private securities, developed during the onset of...

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By Tom Gottfried, Managing Director, National Tax Valuation, Valuation Research Corporation, and Philip Gregorcy, Senior Advisor, Valuation Research Corporation The current Administration’s recent imposition of tariffs on U.S. imports has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with far-reaching implications for international trade, supply chains, and tax valuation. In this article, we will explore the rationale behind tariffs and their economic, technical, and tax valuation implications. Trade Turbulence On April 2, the Administration announced tariffs on approximately 90 countries, with a list of “reciprocal”...

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By Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets The global economy has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty, and at the center of this instability stands the United States. In a reversal of its traditional role as a pillar of predictability and leadership, the U.S. has adopted an erratic posture—rife with sudden feints, policy reversals, and institutional strain. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Trump administration’s economic and foreign policy strategy, which increasingly appears less a coherent vision...

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A sharp drop in U.S.-China trade, driven by escalating tariffs, has led to a surge in blank sailings, exceeding levels seen during the pandemic. Over 80 sailings were canceled in April 2025, surpassing the 51 reported in May 2020. Sea-Intelligence data forecasts a 28% drop in container demand on the Asia–U.S. West Coast route and 42% on the East Coast. Smaller carriers that rely on Chinese exports are facing severe strain, with some at the point of collapse. Empty container stockpiles...

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By Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets The global economy has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty—and at the center of this turbulence stands the United States. In a striking reversal of its traditional role as a pillar of predictability and leadership, the U.S. has adopted an increasingly erratic posture, marked by sudden policy feints, reversals, and mounting institutional strain. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Trump administration’s economic and foreign policy approach, which resembles less a...

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There is now data to support what has been feared. The impact of tariffs includes a dramatic drop of 64% in US ocean container bookings from March to April 2025. This is after a temporary spike, as importers rushed to ship goods ahead of the tariffs. But as soon as the tariffs went into effect, bookings collapsed as businesses faced higher costs and uncertainty. And while some tariffs were suspended, havoc had already descended on supply chains. Companies are taking a...

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"May you live in interesting times” – this backhanded well-wish may never have been as applicable as it is today. Since January, the news cycle has been a steady stream of market-disrupting announcements, false starts, military escalations and political and economic gamesmanship that has humbled economists and wonks who normally have strong insight on things to come. Interesting (unstable) times can be challenging for any business, and regardless of political leaning, no one can deny that since Trump’s return...

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Key insights Higher tariffs mean companies must adapt their transfer pricing policies and supply chain management strategies to account for increased costs associated with importing goods. If a company's actual results from transactions during the tax year are not arm's length, they are required to make retroactive adjustments to the transfer prices paid during the year. Strategic declaration of transaction prices and participation in initiatives like Customs and Border Protection’s reconciliation program can help reduce duty liability. By accurately...

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