By Ian Hunter “Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game.” - Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal President Trump has never seen trade policy as just economics – it’s a high-stakes game, and winning is everything. Throughout his career, he has framed trade deficits as evidence of American weakness, blaming past administrations for allowing U.S. manufacturing to decline while foreign goods flood the market.  With Washington...

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The Red Sea ceasefire may not be exactly what it appears. It seems the Houthis have turned to what feels like maritime extortion. They’re now offering a “safe passage fee” for ships using a negotiation system that includes a customer service email. And presumably, if the fee isn’t paid, further demands for payment are made. Even with the ceasefire in place, insurance premiums remain high, and carriers continue rerouting vessels to avoid the region as security concerns persist. The promise...

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EU to tighten controls on imports from sites such as Shein and Temu  The European Commission is taking a stand against low-value imports offered by non-EU online retailers and facilitated by marketplaces like Shein and Temu, which host non-EU traders. This is part of the Communication on E-Commerce, ‘A comprehensive EU Toolbox for Safe and Sustainable E-commerce’ proposed on Wednesday, 5 February. A total of around 4.6 billion low-value consignments (goods not exceeding the value of €150) entered the EU market last...

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Important Notice: There have been significant trade policy developments regarding tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China today. Mexico: The planned 25% tariff on imports has been delayed for a month after an agreement between President Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. As part of the deal, Mexico will deploy 10,000 members of its national guard to the border to combat drug trafficking. Canada: A similar agreement was reached with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during an afternoon meeting, suspending new...

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Months of talk about tariffs are about to become reality. This weekend, President Trump made official his plan to implement new tariffs this Tuesday. Canada and Mexico face tariffs of up to 25%, with China facing levies of an additional 10%. All three countries have voiced their opposition and plans for retaliatory measures. The impact on trade among the three N. American countries is yet to be seen, with the US having had free-trade agreements in place for decades. Trump...

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The White House confirmed that President Trump will impose new tariffs starting Saturday, February 1. The tariffs include a 25% duty on certain imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on specific Chinese goods. The tariffs could lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers and businesses on products such as electronics, toys, shoes, produce, lumber, and cars. Companies importing these goods must decide whether to absorb the costs, reducing profits, or pass them on to consumers. Mexico and Canada have...

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Overview: The US dollar recorded lows for the month against many of the major currencies yesterday but has come back bid today. We had anticipated some consolidation ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, and the dollar's downside momentum faded. Yet, today’s gains have been fueled by new tariff threats. In particular, Bessent, the new Treasury Secretary, said to be a moderate, reportedly was advocated increasing a universal tariff by 2.5% a month until reaching the levels President...

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Now in office, President Trump has signed an executive order directing federal agencies to investigate unfair trade practices and currency policies, particularly concerning China, Canada, and Mexico. As of this writing, he hasn’t imposed tariffs, but he has indicated he will—as soon as February 1. Specifically, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. He also announced a new External Revenue department that will oversee the collection of duties from any countries subjected to future tariffs. Despite a recent ceasefire between...

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By Erik Smithweiss | U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has recently issued two proposed amendments to the regulations governing the clearance of “de minimis” shipments.  Under Section 321 of the Tariff Act, good valued at $800 or less (and gifts under $100) per shipment may enter the U.S. without payment of customs duties. The first proposed amendment, titled ​“Entry of Low-Value Shipments” (ELVS), would establish a dual-track entry process for de minimis shipments.  This proposal would create an ​“enhanced” entry...

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What happened?  On day one of his Administration, President Trump signed two Executive Orders (presidential directives to the executive branch, having the force of law) signaling a clear change in direction from the Biden Administration on global tax and trade policy. The first takes aim at the OECD’s two pillar project, referred to as the ‘global tax deal,’ and essentially nullifies the US’s agreement to the project. The second is a series of directions to implement ‘America First Trade Policy.’...

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