U.S. container imports from China have dropped sharply due to steep tariffs, especially the 145% China-specific rate. Ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach, which heavily rely on Chinese goods, face major volume losses. China’s share in imports such as electronics, plastics, toys, and furniture is high, and no other sourcing countries can match the lost volume. Analysts are warning the decline will hurt local jobs and port economies. Despite signals that large retailers may resume some sourcing from China, policy...

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By Rachel Szymanski, Chief Economist, Trepp Significant back-and-forth on tariffs has led to unprecedented trade policy uncertainty and large swings in asset prices. While there is now a 90-day pause on some tariffs, others remain in place. This reprieve offers some relief, but the uncertainty itself has substantial effects on behavior, where market participants may delay economic decisions and take risk mitigation measures. This blog outlines the ripple effects of uncertainty throughout the economy and the implications for commercial real estate...

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By Fabio Balboni, Senior Economist, Eurozone, and Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist, HSBC The word “uncertainty” does not do justice to the current global economic outlook. We knew 2025 was going to be an unpredictable year, but the pace of US policy shifts since the ‘Liberation Day’ announcements has been dramatic. The reciprocal tariff unveiling, associated financial market turmoil, the US administration’s rapid U-turn, and a doubling down on mainland China tariffs have already impacted perceptions and expectations in ways...

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By John Czapla, Chairman of the Board, Valuation Research Corporation An unpredictable and rapidly unfolding event has disrupted the global financial markets, coinciding with the end of the first quarter valuation processes for private debt funds. Private credit market valuation professionals are grappling with the fallout from the ongoing trade war may feel a sense of déjà vu, as they’ve navigated similar challenges in the very recent past. The playbook for assessing fair value for private securities, developed during the onset of...

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By Tom Gottfried, Managing Director, National Tax Valuation, Valuation Research Corporation, and Philip Gregorcy, Senior Advisor, Valuation Research Corporation The current Administration’s recent imposition of tariffs on U.S. imports has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with far-reaching implications for international trade, supply chains, and tax valuation. In this article, we will explore the rationale behind tariffs and their economic, technical, and tax valuation implications. Trade Turbulence On April 2, the Administration announced tariffs on approximately 90 countries, with a list of “reciprocal”...

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By Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets The global economy has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty, and at the center of this instability stands the United States. In a reversal of its traditional role as a pillar of predictability and leadership, the U.S. has adopted an erratic posture—rife with sudden feints, policy reversals, and institutional strain. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Trump administration’s economic and foreign policy strategy, which increasingly appears less a coherent vision...

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A sharp drop in U.S.-China trade, driven by escalating tariffs, has led to a surge in blank sailings, exceeding levels seen during the pandemic. Over 80 sailings were canceled in April 2025, surpassing the 51 reported in May 2020. Sea-Intelligence data forecasts a 28% drop in container demand on the Asia–U.S. West Coast route and 42% on the East Coast. Smaller carriers that rely on Chinese exports are facing severe strain, with some at the point of collapse. Empty container stockpiles...

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By Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets The global economy has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty—and at the center of this turbulence stands the United States. In a striking reversal of its traditional role as a pillar of predictability and leadership, the U.S. has adopted an increasingly erratic posture, marked by sudden policy feints, reversals, and mounting institutional strain. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Trump administration’s economic and foreign policy approach, which resembles less a...

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