Jaguar Freight | Cause and Effect, Action and Reaction

In this week’s Roar: The latest from the Strait of Hormuz, extended delays across Asian ports, the FMC denies a request, China-Europe Railway Express volumes jump, and the impacts of losing the de minimis rule.

After weeks of disruption, the Strait of Hormuz has apparently reopened to “non-hostile” ships, which has eased some of the pressure on oil prices and global supply chains. Extreme political rhetoric aside, with vessel tracking via GPS unreliable and the “shadow fleet” operating in the region, it’s hard to know exactly what’s happening. At best, there still isn’t much traffic through the Strait, with an estimated 9 daily transits versus the average of 120 per day before the conflict began. Hundreds of vessels are still waiting. According to industry experts, a full recovery will depend on restoring shipper confidence in the stability and security of the route.

The ripple effects of the conflict in the Middle East are spreading. Liner companies are continuing to divert around the Strait of Hormuz, which is shifting more cargo overland and leading to extended delays at many Asian ports. Add that to tightening global fuel supplies and widespread surcharges, and the pressure on container rates is increasing. While there is evidence of some softening in market demand, upward pressure remains on Asia-linked trades.

The FMC has denied major carriers’ request to shorten the 30-day notice period for ocean rate increases, citing insufficient evidence of specific war-related costs. The Commission has emphasized the need for transparency and data to ensure surcharges are justified and shippers’ interests are protected.

China-Europe Railway Express volumes jumped by about 25% in the first two months of 2026, with train movements up by nearly a third. It’s an indicator of robust China-EU trade growth and improved railway scheduling, and further cements rail’s role in Eurasian freight connectivity. Extended disruption in the Middle East will only serve to accelerate this trend.

The shockwaves of the suspension of the U.S. de minimis rule are finally hitting air freight operators. Here’s where it’s hurting the most: e-commerce proven volumes have collapsed, particularly on China-U.S. routes. Carriers and exporters now have to deal with higher costs, increased bureaucracy, route shifts, and greater compliance demands. There is some cushioning for U.S. importers through nearshoring to Mexico, but the industry is still adapting to the loss of its biggest trade driver.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights here.