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Global Ports
The Headlines: U.S. trade policy is having a notable impact on global trade, despite months of delays and uncertainty. Data shows that in August, China began shipping more to ASEAN countries and less to the U.S., while also bringing attention to the issue of illegal transshipment. The upcoming U.S. port fees are also reshaping trade lanes, with many Chinese-built ships being rerouted to non-U.S. trades. The dynamics of the global supply chain trade (and the ports it relies on) may be permanently shifting. Meanwhile, according to a new ranking, 10 of the world’s top 20 most efficient ports are located in Asia.
What’s Important: While plenty of uncertainty remains, it’s possible PEAK trade uncertainty will soon pass. Importers now have a clearer picture of the costs and other factors that influence their sourcing decisions, as well as the costs of shipping to and from. That said, the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the IEEPA tariffs could change this in an instant. Any decisions to make significant supply chain changes should be made carefully, with a complete understanding of the costs (and with the ability to be flexible). The potential for extreme policy changes remains.
European Update
The Headlines: Several factors are currently affecting European supply chains. Some are old, and some are new… some are good, and some are bad. From sweeping customs reforms and China’s announced “land-based Suez Canal,” to the longstanding issues in the Red Sea and the far from over U.S. trade negotiations, EU supply chains are facing a lot of uncertainty and change.
What’s Important: There’s still a lot to play out for the EU, with issues such as the Red Sea and tariffs in the news daily and constantly changing. Each still demands daily, constant vigilance and attention. The upcoming EU customs reforms will require a longer-term perspective from companies, including a focus on improving trade data accuracy, accessing visibility tools, and forming partnerships that can effectively handle the new regulatory complexity. EU companies that act early will gain a competitive edge and be prepared as the changes happen.
Ocean Freight
The Headlines: Tariffs are reshaping ocean freight networks in significant ways (see Global Ports for more on that). But there are other challenges for the industry. A new analysis by Sea-Intelligence shows rising inefficiency in global container transport, with empty containers now accounting for 41% of moves, up from 31% just six years ago. With the pre-tariff spike in volume likely over and rates settling, capacity reductions and other tactics to increase rates are expected from carriers.
What’s Important: Ocean transport is central to almost every global company’s supply chain. Looking past the obvious and immediate challenges they face, importers need to remember that flexibility to adapt to changes is paramount, as is greater visibility to manage increasingly complex supply chains. Nobody’s supply chain is simple anymore. Regulatory uncertainty can lead to sudden cost increases, route shifts, and delays, so businesses need to monitor policy changes closely and reassess their freight cost assumptions under multiple scenarios (Jaguar Freight can help).
Air Freight
The Headlines: A beneficiary of supply chain disruption occurring over the past 12+ months, global air freight demand is up 5% YoY. The news isn’t all good, however, as cargo theft is on the rise. In the Americas, in 2024, there were ~3,798 incidents of theft (a ~26% increase from 2023), with losses reported around US$455 million; airports and airfreight-handling facilities are being targeted, especially for high-value goods. Additionally, data shows that theft is increasing further in 2025.
What’s Important: Many industry analysts predict air cargo demand will wane heading into 2026, but, like ocean freight, it could be quickly impacted by any sudden policy shifts that affect demand. Importers should use this time to consider their routes and look for ways to be flexible with mode (air vs. ocean), with an eye on regulatory or tariff changes that may suddenly shift costs. Given the issue of rising theft, it is also advisable to emphasize creating greater visibility and security with technology that offers real-time tracking and stronger controls at key touchpoints.
N. America Inland Trends
The Headlines: It’s a challenging time for logistics service providers that operate domestically. Market forces, including tariffs, are pushing up costs for U.S. trucking companies, for example. Unfortunately, as has been the case for years, there is currently little to no growth in the industry to help offset their impact. Meanwhile, a proposed major rail merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern aims to create a true transcontinental rail route, which could offer more streamlined rail options by reducing hand-offs and delays and creating more direct routes.
What’s Important: For domestic shippers, persistent low demand and the railroad merger offer an opportunity. It’s a buyer’s market for TL and LTL freight, as well as parcel services. However, remember that tariff uncertainty affects U.S. inland freight demand and rates, even for local moves. All supply chains, whether domestic or international, are connected. So, diligence by domestic shippers towards understanding how global issues (like trade) need to be part of short and long-term business planning.
U.S. Logistics Manager’s Index
The Headlines: The most recent Logistics Manager’s Index Report® LMI® came in at 59.3. Notable findings include that growth is INCREASING AT AN INCREASING RATE for: Inventory Levels, Inventory Costs, Warehousing Utilization, Warehousing Prices, and Transportation Capacity, and that growth is INCREASING AT A DECREASING RATE for: Warehousing Capacity, Transportation Utilization, and Transportation Prices.
What’s Important: The impact of front-loading imports to avoid tariffs is front and center in the LMI report. Inventory Costs (+7.3) to 79.2 and Warehousing Prices (+3.9) to 72.2 have risen, while Warehousing Capacity expansion is nearly flat. Like most other global supply chain data points, the industry is closely watching the outcome of the ruling on reciprocal tariffs. Expect companies to work through their front-loaded inventory in the meantime, before any significant changes occur with volumes or pricing.
Supply Chain Risk
The Headlines: The LRMI for the fourth quarter indicates a decrease in risk, with eight out of ten risk categories decreasing. Cybersecurity and Data Risk topped the list at 78.31, rising modestly, while other categories declined significantly. Government Intervention Risk remained the second-highest risk, but decreased from 83.33 to 77.11, suggesting less stress over regulatory uncertainty and tariffs.
What’s Important: Although Government Risk decreased and is now second on the list, the category remains one to watch for supply chains. If anything, the lower figure reflects the current lull, as the legality of reciprocal tariffs awaits a decision. With new tariff changes still being announced almost weekly, the uncertainty hanging over the industry shows no signs of ending and requires all companies to remain diligent by staying informed about the news and the impact of every announcement on their business.
Trade Tariffs and Fees and the Supply Chain
The Headlines: The most important tariff news of Q4 (barring any new surprises!) will be the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of the U.S.’s Reciprocal Tariffs. This is expected in late October or early November, which could set in stone much of what has transpired with tariffs so far in 2025, or, if the tariffs are overturned, possibly set off a chain of events as trade partners figure out how to reverse course on changes they have made in response to the IEEPA tariffs.
What’s Important: All the industry can do now is wait and see. If the tariffs are upheld, supply chains can move forward with greater certainty and feel more confident about making long-term decisions based on the tariff landscape. If the tariffs are reversed, there will be some relief, but the U.S. government may try to take actions outside of tariffs to achieve the same desired result. The recent U.S. threat to impose tariffs or other penalties on countries that support emission regulations provides insight into how trade is potentially linked to so many other issues. Companies globally will want to pay close attention: regulatory compliance, emissions standards, and environmental negotiations (IMO, UN) can affect port access, supply chain costs, and duties.