Jaguar Freight | The Weekly Roar: Do No Harm

In this week’s Roar: Record global container volumes, China warns of tariff harm, global trade resilience in 2025, dropping diesel prices, and leadership in the supply chain.

Despite plummeting US imports in 2025, global container volumes set new records as China’s exports surged to new highs by redirecting cargo to Europe, Intra-Asia, and emerging markets. Trade flows didn’t sink, they shifted. US-bound shipments fell nearly 30%, but soaring exports to the EU, Australia, and ASEAN offset any loss. The result? It could be a more balanced global system. Asia-Europe and Intra-Asia became the new growth leaders, while US-focused trade networks were hit hardest. The global market is more segmented, with growing opportunities for non-US lanes.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned that rising tariffs have caused “severe” harm to the world economy, citing falling Chinese exports to the US, which were down 29% in November. But their trade surplus for 2025 exceeded $1 trillion, with exports up 5.9% as shipments shifted to other markets. This is likely not sustainable in the long term, however. Despite easing trade tensions and Chinese exports remaining strong, Li urges support for free trade and greater global cooperation.

Air freight is still flying high. Global trade in 2025 proved to be more resilient than expected, getting a lift from air cargo, which surged to meet tariff front-loading and reroute China’s exports. Cargo is also benefiting from AI-related goods and e-commerce shipments, with a 2026 forecast of 2.6% growth. But the air cargo industry still faces challenges, including an aircraft shortage and lagging progress towards decarbonization goals.

The U.S. national average price of diesel dropped 9.3 cents to $3.665 per gallon, the steepest weekly decline in nearly a year, according to EIA data. This is the third straight weekly decrease, totaling a 20.3-cent drop. The recent decline comes after a month of rising prices and leaves the annual diesel increase at 20.7 cents per gallon. This lower cost is good news for U.S.-based shippers and carriers, although many of whom are negatively impacted by a ninth consecutive month of lower manufacturing activity.

A supply chain is only as good as its people, so it’s concerning that a recent Gartner survey finds that 54% of supply chain executives report leadership turnover has disrupted operations over the last three years. Outdated leadership models are still a thing, with only 22% of leaders displaying the type of collaborative behavior that’s linked to better outcomes. Adding to the challenge, there are skills gaps and ineffective development programs at many companies, especially related to new technologies such as AI that are reshaping supply chain practices.

Compliments of Jaguar Freight – A member of the EACCNY