Jaguar Freight | The Weekly Roar – Lots of letters, air rates holding steady, it’s worse again in the Red Sea, the final end of the de minimis exemption, and what does supply chain resilience really mean?

President Trump has sent letters to over two dozen countries (so far) warning them of new, higher tariffs that are set to take effect August 1. That is, unless, they secure new trade deals with the US. Many of the new rates are close to what Trump had imposed as part of his “liberation day” tariff rollout in April, which set a 10% baseline for nearly all countries and slapped much higher duties on dozens of individual nations. According to the letters, some will face even higher duties with most ranging between 25% and 40%. Noteworthy is that tariff tensions are running extra high with Canada and Brazil. A July 10 letter from Trump to Canada states that the US will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods (and a threat of higher duties on transshipped goods), effective August 1. Meanwhile, Brazil has been threatened with a 50% tariff. with an additional twist. And, Trump’s letter to Brazil escalates things further by explicitly declaring that the higher tariffs are the result of recent political and legal developments in the country.

As US tariff uncertainty has continued, global air freight rates have remained mostly steady, with the TAC Index’s Baltic Air Freight Index dipping just 0.1% for the week but down 7.3% year-on-year. Rates on key China-US and China-Europe lanes held firm, though spot rates out of Hong Kong and Shanghai ticked up slightly. Vietnam saw a minor rate recovery, while India stayed flat. Outbound European rates fell to the US and Japan but rose to China, with mixed performance on new lanes. In the US, most outbound rates declined, except strong southbound routes from Miami, which remain elevated year-on-year.

Security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden just got much worse after Yemen’s Houthi rebels carried out deadly attacks on two commercial vessels, including the deliberate sinking of the Greek-owned Magic Seas. A second ship, Eternity C, was also attacked, causing it to sink, with multiple crew members still unaccounted for. This has driven war risk premiums for shipping up from 0.4% to 1% of a vessel’s value, dramatically increasing insurance costs. Transits through the Suez Canal remain severely reduced, and experts are urging shipowners to increase due diligence and affiliation checks while the regional conflict continues.

President Trump’s new tax bill officially means the end of the de minimis exemption, which allows imports under $800 to enter the US duty-free. It will come into effect July 1, 2027. While exemptions will remain for travel purchases and gifts, most low-cost shipments will now be subject to tariffs, impacting high-volume e-commerce firms like Shein and Temu. The new law also puts civil penalties in place for anyone misusing the exemption. The change follows earlier moves to restrict imports from China and Hong Kong and is expected to shift supply chains toward bulk shipping and expanded US fulfillment operations.

So what does supply chain resilience really mean? It’s a company’s ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disruptions like natural disasters, geopolitical instability, and supplier delays. Resilience needs to be built on flexibility, visibility, diversification, and collaboration, allowing supply chains to adapt and maintain operations under stress. What makes it resilient? Using real-time data, diverse suppliers, optimized inventory buffers, and investments in digital technologies that can anticipate and mitigate risks. With so many things that can cause disruptions, such as natural disasters, trade tensions, and overreliance on a single source, what exactly is needed? Resilient designs, proactive risk management, and strong leadership can help companies recover faster, maintain customer trust, and gain a competitive advantage.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights here.

Compliments of Jaguar Freight – a member of the EACCNY.