Transatlantic Trade Monitor: Facts You Need Now | Preparing for 2026 – A View from the Bridge

It’s already decided… the word of the year in maritime shipping is UNCERTAINTY. And with plenty of trade-related questions still unanswered, the challenge is going to continue. To help you navigate what’s currently happening and prepare for 2026, here are three predictions on what shippers can expect from the ocean freight market moving forward.

Prediction #1: There Will Be Lasting Impact from Tariffs, Geopolitics, and Shifting Demand

Yes, some trade agreements have been finalized, and many “frameworks” have been announced in the past few months. But has that much really been settled? Based on the political posturing and rhetoric we’ve all been subject to this year, it’s hard not to expect more to come.

This means companies can expect additional, or at least different, tariffs and regulations to contend with in 2026. At this point, there is no reason to think the uncertainty will not continue under President Trump. Lasting change has already been made to global supply chains, so getting back to “normal” is unlikely. That said, trade volume is expected to remain steady into 2026, despite a decreasing share being from Asia to the U.S.

Tariffs are not the only factor influencing the market. Arguably, the MOST impactful post-COVID supply chain disruptor of the past few years has been geopolitics, above and beyond the U.S. trade wars. From the war in Ukraine to the problems in the Middle East, trade lanes and carrier routings continue to adapt to shifting demand. This trend is likely to accelerate.

Tariffs and geopolitics aside, the epicenter of global trade is evolving in other ways. Estimates are that Oceania and Africa will be the core of future supply chain growth. This means the global fleet will need to adapt. One result is that more niche carriers will emerge, and fleets will be reshaped to adapt.

Prediction #2: Tough Decisions Are Coming for Shippers and Carriers

Even though supply chains are more global than ever, it does not mean that logistics companies and local governments agree about how they should operate. Beyond geopolitics, there are growing differences of opinion and approaches to several supply chain choices that will force many companies to make hard decisions.

For one, decarbonization has become very polarizing with the U.S., for now, actively hindering any globally coordinated efforts to improve sustainability. One direction this could take, however, is that specific regions will begin to act independently to address the issue of sustainability. This means more options will emerge for shippers as carriers and countries set their own rules.

Adding to the existing complexity will be that global operators are facing increased local regulation. The result is that adhering to regulation and costs, such as taxes, will also increase. Currently, for example, in many regions companies are buying and selling in countries without being taxed. Soon shippers and logistics operators may face countries seeking ways to collect more taxes and duties they believe are justified.

What this means is companies will need to make more choices, such as with how important emissions are, when deciding who they want to partner with.

Prediction #3: AI, Technology, and People Will Intersect

The coming together of technology, led by AI, and the impact it has on the people working in the industry is here. On one hand, AI is likely to make it possible for companies to eliminate some entry-level and other jobs. On the other hand, AI and new technologies could increase the need for high-performing, well-trained employees in areas beyond what the tech can do. The two outcomes may work against each other.

It can’t be overlooked that company success will still rely on the quality of its people. Here is the concern: without many the jobs AI can replace, how will people learn the basics of the business and be trained for more senior roles when AI is doing the work?

Another people issue is that seafarers have a challenging job that pushes the limits of a reasonable work-life balance, as it requires them to be away from home for months at a time. Not surprisingly, carriers are having trouble finding applicants. It makes sense that one solution is to improve working conditions and pay, but that will create, of course, higher operating costs for carriers and higher rates for shippers.

Returning to technology, data management and information security remain problems as cyberattacks continue to hit shipping companies hard in public ways. Yet, companies are still not waking up to the seriousness of the issue. Meanwhile, every presentation about big data starts with the caveat that useful analytics starts with clean data. The problem is that trust in data is under attack, too. Data integrity will remain paramount, making it vital to verify the information companies use to make decisions.

It’s too early to know what 2026’s word of the year will be. We’re hoping something closer to “STABILITY”, but we’ll have to see. The good news is that trade will not stop, and global demand is strong.

How your company prepares to handle the present uncertainty in light of our predictions will play a significant role in your success in 2026 and the many years that follow.

Compliments of Jaguar Freight – a member of the EACCNY