The recession will start on the docks of Los Angeles. It will be a product of a rational response of producers, wholesalers and retailers to the uncertainty created by policymakers. The cost of those policy decisions is a misapplied consumption tax on households and businesses, which will soon cause a premature and unnecessary end to the expansion. Rising inflation, declining real incomes and increasing unemployment will follow. The price of those policies will first be paid at the ports and then...

Extreme Uncertainty Reigns Due to Geopolitics and Tariffs while Market Demand Fluctuates. Global Ports The Headlines: The tariff roller coaster has been manageable for ports, at least on the US West Coast, with impact being nowhere near the pandemic peaks (so far). Notable is that a White House spokesperson recently indicated the end date for the 90-day tariff pause is ”flexible”. However, European and Latin American ports have had a more difficult time with congestion thanks to several other ongoing problems, including service realignments,...

EU-based importers were able to adapt swiftly to past supply-chain shocks, according to study. Intra-EU trade serves as a source of resilience, cushioning firms from global disruptions. European importers diversified suppliers following worldwide trade disruptions, says report by EIB and European Commission.  European businesses also embraced technologies to strengthen logistics.  Firms in the European Union have responded to global trade shocks with remarkable agility, according to a new report. EU-based traders took actions to counter supply-chain disruptions caused by...

In Q2, US trade policies impacted more than Chinese imports. They’ve also disrupted global air and ocean freight, affecting Europe who is now dealing with unstable shipping volumes and unpredictable demand. The ocean freight market has shown some signs of stabilization, but remains weak, with carriers using blank sailings to control overcapacity. An uncertain future regarding US tariffs on EU imports threatens even further disruption. A brief spike in ocean bookings after the US-China truce wasn’t enough to reverse the...

Lest we forget, port fees are back in the news again. The US Trade Representative is requesting public comments through July 7th with regards to the Section 301 investigation into China’s maritime dominance. Beginning October 14, Chinese-owned ships will pay escalating fees per net ton, while other vessels built in China will pay higher container- or tonnage-based rates, increasing annually through 2028. The fee starts at $50 per net ton and will go up to $140. The move follows an earlier...

By Ryan Last, Daniel N. Anziska, Daniel Gorman, Charlene C. Goldfield, and Luke LoFrumento*, Troutman Pepper Locke On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. In the case of V.O.S. v. United States, the court found that IEEPA does not delegate such broad tariff powers to the president and that the tariffs addressing illegal migration and illicit drug flows “do not deal...

The Red Sea crisis has forced most new container capacity to be deployed on extended Asia-Europe routes via the Cape of Good Hope. Since May 2024, 2.62 million TEU have been added globally, with 31% of that allocated to Asia-Europe, boosting capacity there by over 40% between 2023 and 2025. This is equivalent to almost 25% of the global fleet trading there, making it the largest shipping lane for the liner fleet. In comparison, The Asia-North America fleet had an annual...