By Ian Hunter, Director, OCO GLOBAL On Saturday, President Trump confirmed a 30 % tariff on most imports from the EU and Mexico, set to begin August 1. While the final product list is still pending, the administration has signaled – most recently on July  8 – that additional, sector-specific tariffs on semiconductors are being considered. Reuters reporting indicates these could exceed 25%, targeting critical inputs like chipmaking tools (Reuters, July 9). While not yet finalized, the prospect alone is creating uncertainty...

President Trump has sent letters to over two dozen countries (so far) warning them of new, higher tariffs that are set to take effect August 1. That is, unless, they secure new trade deals with the US. Many of the new rates are close to what Trump had imposed as part of his “liberation day” tariff rollout in April, which set a 10% baseline for nearly all countries and slapped much higher duties on dozens of individual nations. According to the letters,...

The recession will start on the docks of Los Angeles. It will be a product of a rational response of producers, wholesalers and retailers to the uncertainty created by policymakers. The cost of those policy decisions is a misapplied consumption tax on households and businesses, which will soon cause a premature and unnecessary end to the expansion. Rising inflation, declining real incomes and increasing unemployment will follow. The price of those policies will first be paid at the ports and then...

Extreme Uncertainty Reigns Due to Geopolitics and Tariffs while Market Demand Fluctuates. Global Ports The Headlines: The tariff roller coaster has been manageable for ports, at least on the US West Coast, with impact being nowhere near the pandemic peaks (so far). Notable is that a White House spokesperson recently indicated the end date for the 90-day tariff pause is ”flexible”. However, European and Latin American ports have had a more difficult time with congestion thanks to several other ongoing problems, including service realignments,...

EU-based importers were able to adapt swiftly to past supply-chain shocks, according to study. Intra-EU trade serves as a source of resilience, cushioning firms from global disruptions. European importers diversified suppliers following worldwide trade disruptions, says report by EIB and European Commission.  European businesses also embraced technologies to strengthen logistics.  Firms in the European Union have responded to global trade shocks with remarkable agility, according to a new report. EU-based traders took actions to counter supply-chain disruptions caused by...

In Q2, US trade policies impacted more than Chinese imports. They’ve also disrupted global air and ocean freight, affecting Europe who is now dealing with unstable shipping volumes and unpredictable demand. The ocean freight market has shown some signs of stabilization, but remains weak, with carriers using blank sailings to control overcapacity. An uncertain future regarding US tariffs on EU imports threatens even further disruption. A brief spike in ocean bookings after the US-China truce wasn’t enough to reverse the...

Lest we forget, port fees are back in the news again. The US Trade Representative is requesting public comments through July 7th with regards to the Section 301 investigation into China’s maritime dominance. Beginning October 14, Chinese-owned ships will pay escalating fees per net ton, while other vessels built in China will pay higher container- or tonnage-based rates, increasing annually through 2028. The fee starts at $50 per net ton and will go up to $140. The move follows an earlier...