By: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Dialing down uncertainty, reducing vulnerabilities, and investing in innovation can help deliver durable economic gains In April, the United States shook global trade norms by announcing sweeping tariffs. Given the complexity and fluidity of the moment, our April report offered a range of estimates for the growth downgrade, from modest to significant, depending on the ultimate severity of the trade shock. Six months on, where are we? The good news is that the growth downgrade is at the modest...

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By: Era Dabla-Norris, Davide Furceri, Zsuzsa Munkacsi, Galen Sher Spending more efficiently and reallocating public funds toward investment and innovation can be a powerful growth strategy Over the past two decades, Rwanda achieved remarkable progress. Nearly every household now has access to mobile phones and primary education. More than half the population has electricity, and one in five has clean drinking water and sanitation services. Rwandans consume three times more electricity and live 20 years longer. These gains came from relatively modest increases in investment,...

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The European labour market remains resilient, with low unemployment levels, despite a decline in employment growth, according to the European Commission's latest report. In 2024, job growth decreased to 0.8%, compared to 1.2% in 2023, as a result of economic pressure and geopolitical instability. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate in Europe remains near its record low. Despite welcomed progress over the last decade which saw certain sectors experience significant rises in pay, one in five workers remain in low-paying jobs. In 2024,...

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The FSB's 2024 AI report identified several vulnerabilities, including third-party dependencies, market correlations, cyber risks, and challenges in model risk and governance, which may have implications for financial stability Since the FSB’s 2024 report on the financial stability implications of artificial intelligence (AI), there have been significant developments in the AI ecosystem. These include advancements in AI models, new companies offering more flexible options, more competition in hardware, and global technology providers controlling more parts of the AI supply chain. These developments...

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By Agostino Consolo, António Dias da Silva, Maarten Dossche and Marco Weißler Do European workers see US tariff hikes as a threat to their job security? According to an ECB survey, while most workers are fairly relaxed, those in export-oriented sectors and those with lower incomes are more worried about their jobs than before the tariff increase. Trade tariffs between the euro area and the United States increased significantly this year. These tariffs increase the price of goods produced in Europe for...

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