OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2023: Confronting Inflation and Low Growth

The near-term global outlook is shaped by the increasingly visible impact of monetary policy tightening by most major central banks and stresses in the Chinese economy. Global growth is projected to slow, remaining below trend in 2023-24, while inflation moderates but remains above target. Key downside risks include the possibility of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China and a continued rise in oil prices.

Summary:

• • After a stronger-than-expected start to 2023, helped by lower energy prices and the reopening of China, global growth is expected to moderate. The impact of tighter monetary policy is becoming increasingly visible, business and consumer confidence have turned down, and the rebound in China has faded.
  • Global GDP growth is projected to remain sub-par in 2023 and 2024, at 3% and 2.7% respectively, held back by the macroeconomic policy tightening needed to rein in inflation.
  • Annual GDP growth in the United States is expected to slow from 2.2% this year to 1.3% in 2024, as tighter financial conditions moderate demand pressures. In the euro area, where demand is already subdued, GDP growth is projected to ease to 0.6% in 2023, and edge up to 1.1% in 2024 as the adverse impact of high inflation on real incomes fades. Growth in China is expected to be held back by subdued domestic demand and structural stresses in property markets, easing to 5.1% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024.
  • Headline inflation is declining, but core inflation remains persistent in many economies, held up by cost pressures and high margins in some sectors.
  • Inflation is projected to moderate gradually over 2023 and 2024, but to remain above central bank objectives in most economies. Headline inflation in the G20 economies is projected to ease to 6% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024, with core inflation in the G20 advanced economies declining from 4.3% this year to 2.8% in 2024.
  • Risks remain tilted to the downside. Uncertainty about the strength and speed of monetary policy transmission and the persistence of inflation are key concerns. The adverse effects of higher interest rates could prove stronger than expected, and greater inflation persistence would require additional policy tightening that might expose financial vulnerabilities.
  • A sharper-than-expected slowdown in China is an additional key risk that would hit output growth around the world.
  • Monetary policy needs to remain restrictive until there are clear signs that underlying inflation pressures have durably abated. Policy interest rates appear to be at or close to a peak in most economies, including the United States and the euro area, with policy judgements more finely balanced as the effects of higher interest rates become visible.
  • Governments are faced with mounting fiscal pressures from rising debt burdens and additional spending on ageing populations, the climate transition and defence. Enhanced near-term efforts to rebuild fiscal space and credible medium-term fiscal plans are needed to better align near-term macroeconomic policies and help ensure debt sustainability.
  • Structural policy efforts need to be reinvigorated to strengthen growth prospects. Reducing barriers in labour and product markets and enhancing skills development would help to boost investment, productivity and labour force participation, and make growth more inclusive.
  • A key priority is to revive global trade, which is an important source of long-term prosperity for both advanced and emerging-market economies. Concerns about economic security should not prevent advantage being taken of opportunities to lower trade barriers, especially in service sectors.
  • Enhanced international co-operation is needed to ensure better coordination and faster progress in carbon mitigation efforts.