Amid heightened uncertainty, policymakers will need to deal with complex trade-offs between debt, slower growth, and new spending pressures Major policy shifts underway have heightened global uncertainty. The series of recent tariff announcements by the United States, and countermeasures by other countries have increased financial market volatility, weakened growth prospects, and increased risks. They come in the context of rising debt levels in many countries and already strained public finances, which in many cases will also need to accommodate new...

The global risk outlook has become more challenging amid increased trade and economic policy uncertainty. This letter was submitted to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) ahead of the G20’s meeting on 23-24 April. As his term as FSB Chair nears its conclusion on 1 July 2025, Klaas Knot reflects on the progress made in addressing global challenges to financial stability and outlines priorities for the future. The letter notes the challenging global risk outlook, with increased trade and...

Global growth is expected to decline and downside risks to intensify as major policy shifts unfold Executive Summary: Following an unprecedented series of shocks in the preceding years, global growth was stable yet underwhelming through 2024 and was projected to remain so in the January 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update. However, the landscape has changed as governments around the world reorder policy priorities. Since the release of the January 2025 WEO Update, a series of new tariff measures by the...

Amid trade tensions and high policy uncertainty, the path forward will be determined by how challenges are confronted and opportunities embraced Blog post by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas | The global economic system under which most countries have operated for the last 80 years is being reset, ushering the world into a new era. Existing rules are challenged while new ones are yet to emerge. Since late January, a flurry of tariff announcements by the United States, which started with Canada, China,...

New targeted amendments to existing EU funding programmes will support faster, more flexible and coordinated investments in Europe's defence technological and industrial base (EDTIB). Under a new Regulation to stimulate defence-related investments within the EU budget proposed today by the Commission, the EU will strengthen its defence Readiness 2030 and to implement the ReArm Europe plan. The proposed changes will enhance the ability of the EU and Member States to develop, scale up and innovate in key defence capabilities, while streamlining access to EU...

Risks have risen as financial conditions tightened, with key vulnerabilities ahead Capital markets are essential for driving economic activity, providing mechanisms for raising funds and allocating resources efficiently. The stability of these markets and the financial institutions that intermediate them are therefore macro-critical, especially when market volatility and economic uncertainty are high, as they are now. In the latest Global Financial Stability Report, we assess that global financial stability risks have grown significantly, driven by tighter financial conditions and heightened trade and...

By Fédéric Holm-Hadulla and Sebastiaan Pool Central banks usually seek to align very short-term interest rates in the money market with their own policy rate. But money market rates fluctuate also for reasons other than policy. This blog shows that monetary policy is more effective if such fluctuations are small. Discussions about monetary policy usually centre on whether interest rates should go up, down or stay the same. The complexities of how monetary policy is carried out in practice often go...

Member states’ representatives (Coreper) approved today the Council’s position (‘negotiating mandate’) on one of the Commission’s proposals to simplify EU rules and thus boost EU competitiveness. This proposal aims to increase the EU's investment capacity to mobilise around €50 billion in additional public and private investments in support of certain EU policies, notably related to the Competitiveness Compass, the Clean Industrial Deal, defence industrial policy and military mobility. The proposed changes further seek to make it easier for Member States to...